Collingwood Magpies vs. Brisbane Lions prediction: Why Lions are favored to win Friday's AFL Round 24 matchup [8/21/2026]

The Collingwood Magpies will face the favored Brisbane Lions in Australian Football League (AFL) action at Melbourne Cricket Ground on Friday, beginning at 5:40 AM ET.

Dimers' proven AFL model projects the Lions as the most likely winner in this Lions vs. Magpies prediction.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's matchup, including best bets and picks.

Magpies vs. Lions prediction: Who will win Round 24 game?

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's AFL game between the Lions and Magpies, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Lions a 64.5% chance of beating the Magpies.

According to our model, the Magpies (+17.5) have a 57.0% chance of covering the spread, while the 185.5-point over/under has a 51.4% chance of staying under.

Brisbane vs. Collingwood odds

We have sourced the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Lions -233, Magpies +180

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Lions vs. Magpies picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Magpies +17.5 @ -115 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Magpies @ +180 via DraftKings
• Total: Under 185.5 @ -115 via DraftKings

According to our best AFL bets, the top play to make on this game is Magpies +17.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Magpies vs. Lions game-day updates and essential details

Friday's Australian rules football game between the Magpies and Lions at Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to begin at 5:40 AM ET.

• Who: Brisbane Lions vs. Collingwood Magpies
• Date: Friday, August 21, 2026
• Time: 5:40 AM ET/2:40AM PT
• Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground

The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.

Conclusion

We predict the Lions, with a 64.5% win probability, will likely beat the Magpies in Friday's AFL matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.