Essendon Bombers vs. Sydney Swans prediction: Why Swans are favored to win Sunday's AFL Round 23 matchup [8/16/2026]

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's AFL game between the Swans and Bombers, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Swans a 96.2% chance of beating the Bombers.

According to our model, the Swans (-10.5) have a 80.3% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 185.5 points has a 50.3% chance of going over,.

Sydney vs. Essendon odds

We have sourced the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Swans -5000, Bombers +1300

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Swans vs. Bombers picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Swans -10.5 @ +105 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Swans @ -5000 via DraftKings
• Total: Over 185.5 @ -115 via DraftKings

According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Swans -10.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Bombers vs. Swans game-day updates and essential details

Sunday's Australian rules football game between the Bombers and Swans at Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to begin at 2:40 AM ET.

• Who: Sydney Swans vs. Essendon Bombers
• Date: Sunday, August 16, 2026
• Time: 2:40 AM ET/11:40PM PT
• Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground

The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.

Conclusion

We predict the Swans, with a 96.2% win probability, will likely beat the Bombers in Sunday's AFL matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.