College football picks today: Week 5 Saturday best bets include Utah State vs. Boise State play [10/3/2026]

Boise State ML (-1400)

• Edge: 5.5%
• Probability: 98.9%
• Matchup: Utah State vs. Boise State (7:30PM ET)

Our model has identified value on Boise State to defeat Utah State at -1400 odds. A 98.9% probability produces an edge of 5.5%, making this the strongest play for today's college football slate.

Pennsylvania vs. Dartmouth Over 39.5 points (-113)

• Edge: 5.2%
• Probability: 58.2%
• Matchup: Pennsylvania vs. Dartmouth (1:30PM ET)

Pennsylvania vs. Dartmouth over 39.5 points carries a 5.2% edge and a probability of 58.2% at -113 odds, according to our model.

Colgate vs. Harvard Over 36.5 points (-113)

• Edge: 4.8%
• Probability: 57.9%
• Matchup: Colgate vs. Harvard (7:00PM ET)

Colgate vs. Harvard Over 36.5 points at -113 odds shows a 4.8% edge, supported by a 57.9% probability in simulations.

Rice +12.5 (-112)

• Edge: 4.5%
• Probability: 57.3%
• Matchup: UTSA vs. Rice (7:00PM ET)

A 4.5% edge and 57.3% probability makes Rice +12.5 vs. UTSA a value play in the UTSA vs. Rice matchup, per our model.

Connecticut +6.5 (+100)

• Edge: 4.1%
• Probability: 54.1%
• Matchup: Syracuse vs. Connecticut (12:00PM ET)

Connecticut +6.5 at +100 presents a 4.1% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 54.1%.

Rice ML (+430)

• Edge: 3.9%
• Probability: 22.7%
• Matchup: UTSA vs. Rice (7:00PM ET)

Our model finds value on Rice to win at +430, supported by an edge of 3.9%.

New Hampshire +10.5 (-110)

• Edge: 3.5%
• Probability: 55.9%
• Matchup: Elon University vs. New Hampshire (1:00PM ET)

Our model has uncovered value on New Hampshire +10.5 at -110. A 55.9% probability produces a 3.5% edge, making this a strong play for today's college football action.

Charleston Southern +7.5 (-110)

• Edge: 3.2%
• Probability: 55.6%
• Matchup: Gardner-Webb vs. Charleston Southern (6:00PM ET)

A 3.2% edge on a 55.6% probability makes Charleston Southern +7.5 at -110a solid value play in today's Gardner-Webb vs. Charleston Southern matchup.

Western Michigan vs. BuffaloOver 46.5 points (-105)

• Edge: 3.1%
• Probability: 54.3%
• Matchup: Western Michigan vs. Buffalo (1:00PM ET)

Our model projects value on Over 46.5 points at -105. A 54.3% probability produces a 3.1% edge, making the Over the favorable side in today's matchup.

Bowling Green vs. Miami Ohio Over 43 points (-110)

• Edge: 3.1%
• Probability: 55.5%
• Matchup: Elon University vs. New Hampshire (3:30PM ET)

Rounding out our top 10 bets, Bowling Green vs. Miami Ohio Over 43 points at -110 shows a 55.5% probability and a 3.1% edge.

NCAAF best bets summary: Saturday, 10/3/2026

As of 2:03AM ET, here are our top college football bets by edge recommended by our model:

List of upcoming college football games to bet on now

• Memphis vs. Charlotte (11:00AM ET, Saturday)
• Michigan vs. Minnesota (12:00PM ET, Saturday)
• Notre Dame vs. North Carolina (12:00PM ET, Saturday)
• Alabama vs. Mississippi State (12:00PM ET, Saturday)
• Stanford vs. Wake Forest (12:00PM ET, Saturday)
• Boston College vs. Southern Methodist (12:00PM ET, Saturday)
• UCF vs. Houston (12:00PM ET, Saturday)
• West Virginia vs. Iowa State (12:00PM ET, Saturday)
• Syracuse vs. Connecticut (12:00PM ET, Saturday)
• Navy vs. Air Force (12:00PM ET, Saturday)

College football offer for Week 5

Make the most of the picks in this article—including Boise State ML—with the Bet365 Sportsbook offer below:

Conclusion

Our college football best bets are locked and loaded for October 3, 2026, featuring plays such as Boise State ML vs. Utah State and over 39.5 points in the Pennsylvania vs. Dartmouth matchup. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

Our predictions are rooted in current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.