San Diego State vs. Toledo prediction: Why Toledo is favored to win in college football Week 4 [2026]

Toledo will face San Diego State in Week 4 college football action at Glass Bowl on Saturday, with kickoff at 12:00 PM ET.

Dimers' proven college football model projects Toledo as the most likely winner in this San Diego State vs. Toledo prediction.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and picks.

San Diego State vs. Toledo prediction and odds

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the result of San Diego State vs. Toledo, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives Toledo a 61.5% chance of beating San Diego State. Our predicted final score has Toledo winning 27-23. According to our model, San Diego State (+3) has a 52.5% chance of covering the spread, while the 50.5-point over/under has a 53.2% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: San Diego State +3 (-115) / Toledo -3 (-105)
• Moneyline: San Diego State +121, Toledo -138
• Total: Over/Under 50.5 (-109/-107)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: San Diego State +3 @ -115 via bet365
• Moneyline: Toledo @ -138 via FanDuel
• Total: Over 50.5 @ -109 via Caesars

According to our college football best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 50.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's college football game between Toledo and San Diego State at Glass Bowl is scheduled to begin at 12:00 PM ET.

• Who: San Diego State vs. Toledo
• Date: Saturday, September 26, 2026
• Time: 12:00 PM ET/9:00AM PT
• Venue: Glass Bowl

College football Week 4 promos

Make the most of Dimers' San Diego State vs. Toledo predictions by exploring the Bet365 Sportsbook offer below:

Conclusion

We predict Toledo, with a 61.5% win probability, will likely beat San Diego State in Saturday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary College Football prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.