USF vs. UTSA prediction favors UTSA to win in college football Week 6 [2026]

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of USF vs. UTSA, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives UTSA a 69.7% chance of defeating South Florida. Our predicted final score has UTSA winning 28-22. According to our model, South Florida (+7) has a 51.2% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 50.5 points has a 52.3% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: USF +7 (-107) / UTSA -7 (-103)
• Moneyline: USF +220, UTSA -260
• Total: Over/Under 50.5 (-104/-114)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: South Florida +7 @ -107 via BetRivers
• Moneyline: South Florida @ +220 via DraftKings
• Total: Over 50.5 @ -104 via bet365

According to our college football best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 50.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Thursday's college football action between UTSA and USF at Alamodome is scheduled to start at 7:30 PM ET.

• Who: South Florida vs. UTSA
• Date: Thursday, October 8, 2026
• Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
• Venue: Alamodome

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Conclusion

We predict UTSA, with a 69.7% win probability, will likely beat South Florida in Thursday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary College Football prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.