Southern Miss vs. Troy prediction: Why Troy is favored to win in college football Week 6 [2026]

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Southern Miss vs. Troy, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives Troy a 76.8% chance of defeating Southern Miss. Our predicted final score has Troy winning 30-21. According to our model, Southern Miss (+9.5) has a 51.0% chance of covering the spread, while the 52.5-point over/under has a 50.8% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Southern Miss +9.5 (+100) / Troy -9.5 (-122)
• Moneyline: Southern Miss +330, Troy -410
• Total: Over/Under 52.5 (-105/-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Southern Miss +9.5 @ +100 via FanDuel
• Moneyline: Southern Miss @ +330 via BetRivers
• Total: Under 52.5 @ -110 via Caesars

According to our college football best bets, the top play to make on this game is Southern Miss +9.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Tuesday's college football action between Troy and Southern Miss at Veterans Memorial Stadium is scheduled to begin at 8:00 PM ET.

• Who: Southern Miss vs. Troy
• Date: Tuesday, October 6, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
• Venue: Veterans Memorial Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict Troy, with a 76.8% win probability, will likely beat Southern Miss in Tuesday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary College Football prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.