Aug 11, 2026
"PGA Tour: FedEx St. Jude Championship Winner" Live Polymarket odds and predictions
Read Article PGA TOUR Championship predictions, best golf bets at East Lake Golf Club
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Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
The FedExCup Playoffs conclude with the TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club, and we've got the latest predictions from the Dimers model.
The TOUR Championship has arrived to put a bow on the FedExCup Playoffs and the 2026 PGA TOUR season, with one last event before our golf predictions turn to the fall lineup of events.
Thanks to our weekly golf predictions, we've identified Cameron Young to win THE PLAYERS, Matt Fitzpatrick to win the Valspar Championship, and notably picked Tommy Fleetwood to win at this event last year for his first ever PGA TOUR victory.
2026 TOUR Championship preview
- Date: August 27-30, 2026
- Location: Atlanta, GA
- Course: East Lake Golf Club
- Par: 70 / 7,440 yards
The PGA TOUR's season officially wraps up this week at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, where the top 30 players from the FedExCup standings gather for the TOUR Championship.
For the second consecutive year, the event will be played as a traditional 72-hole stroke-play tournament with every player starting the week at even par with no more staggered scoring.,
East Lake itself is the constant in an otherwise shifting FedExCup format, as every FedExCup champion since the event's 2007 inception has been crowned on this course. Playing to a par of 70 and stretching to roughly 7,440 yards, the layout is top-heavy on par 4s with twelve of them, against just four par 3s and two reachable par 5s, putting a premium on ball-striking. Water comes into play on eight holes, adding a moderate risk-reward element to the mix.
Statistically, East Lake rewards raw power about as much as any course on TOUR, since distance off the tee also translates into an advantage out of the thick rough that typically frames the fairways. Last year, Tommy Fleetwood broke through for his first PGA TOUR title at East Lake as predicted by Dimers, and with a loaded 30-man field, a course built to punish mistakes and reward length, and a full season on the line, this week's TOUR Championship should offer a fitting final test before a FedExCup champion is crowned.
Now, let's dig into the value!
Who will win the 2026 TOUR Championship?
Our win predictions are the result of simulating the tournament over 10,000 times via our AI models, as well as each golfer's odds to finish Top 5, 10 and 20:
| Golfer | Win% | Top 5% | Top 10% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Scottie Scheffler | 22.2% | 55.6% | 76.3% |
| 2. Sam Burns | 6.2% | 26.2% | 48.1% |
| 3. Wyndham Clark | 5.5% | 24.3% | 47.3% |
| 4. Rory McIlroy | 5.2% | 26.8% | 46.1% |
| 5. Patrick Cantlay | 5.0% | 24.3% | 45.2% |
For each tournament, we look at the golfers our model has identified with a higher probability to win than what is implied by the sportsbook odds.
To get the most out of this week's PGA TOUR event, check out Dimers' full tournament predictions and compare with course history and other analytics to find an edge.
2026 TOUR Championship best bets
The field is just 30 players deep, but that hasn't kept our model from identifying value, from outright winners at the top to some placement value in the Top 5 and Top 10 markets.
We'll highlight a handful of these golfers below, but encourage all users to check out the full TOUR Championship predictions for every possible edge.
Dimers' best bet: Sam Burns (+1800 on bet365)
Win probability: 6.2%
Dimers' fair odds: +1515 or better
Burns arrives at East Lake as Dimers' top betting value after a stretch that saw him post four top five fniishes in his past seven starts, including against loaded fields at the U.S. Open, The Open and FedEx St. Jude Championship.
His T28 at the BMW Championship looks like the outlier rather than a sign of regression, especially with Burns returning to a course where he's gone sub-70 in every round over his last two appearances.
His putting and approach game are excellent, setting him up well to navigate the various surfaces he'll encounter at East Lake.
Russell Henley to win (+3000 on FanDuel)
Win probability: 3.8%
Dimers' fair odds: +2530 or better
The man from Georgia has quietly built one of the strongest resumes at East Lake out of anyone in the field, finishing T2 and T4 in his past two outings, with four top-20s in his last five starts overall.
Henley's game is built for this test with the fourth-most accurate driver in the field over his last 12 rounds, ranking 8th in putting on the season, and eighth on TOUR this season in bogey avoidance, making his lack of raw power a non-issue on a course that rewards precision just as much.
At a discrepancy of nearly +500 between model and market price, he's another value play on our radar.
Ladder target: Alex Smalley to win (+7500 on Fanatics) and place
Probability: 1.4%
Dimers' fair odds: +7040 or better
The only player in the field without a PGA TOUR win, Smalley is making his East Lake debut and looking to pull off what Tommy Fleetwood did as a fellow non-winner a year ago.
He's earned a longshot look with three straight top-25 finishes (T7 at Wyndham, T24 at FedEx St. Jude and T16 at BMW Championship), five Top 10 finishes this year and his iron play has been especially sharp, ranking 25th on approach this season.
Can Smalley repeat Fleetwood's feat at last year's event and bag his first win on a big stage?
Our model gives him just a 1.4% chance to do so, but at fair odds of just +7040, we say he's worth a bet, as well as worth a look in Top 10 and top 5 placements for less risk.
Akshay Bhatia Top 10 (+430 on FanDuel)
Win probability: 19.4%
Dimers' fair odds: +415 or better
Akshay Bhatia is the field's most volatile player, capable of brilliance but rarely predictable, making his third start at East Lake after recording four sub-70 rounds there last year en route to a T13.
It's been a tale of two seasons for the lefty, who ripped off five consecutive Top 20s, including a win and a T3 and T6 on the West Coast, before stumbling to four missed cuts since May.
Still, he picked up momentum at the right time with a T12 last week and gets a slim edge for a Top 10 finish. While he's not a value play at 0.9% and +9000 to win, he's shown his ability to hang with strong fields.
Dimers' golf resources for 2026 PGA TOUR
As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers Pro subscribers also have access to the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup head to head tool.
- PGA Predictions: Our data-backed predictions for every tournament, including every major.
- Head-to-Head Predictor: Simulate any H2H tournament matchup between golfers
- Dimers' PGA Rankings: Our in-house approach to ranking the World's best golfers
- PGA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the PGA TOUR
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To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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