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Read Article Braves vs. Astros prediction: Houston favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [9/20/2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Dimers' simulation model projects a 58.4% win probability for the Astros at Daikin Park.
MLB action continues on Sunday at 2:10 PM ET as the Atlanta Braves square off with the Houston Astros at Daikin Park.
The Astros will start Hunter Brown (6-3, 3.43 ERA), while the Braves will counter with Martín Pérez (9-9, 3.07 ERA).
Dimers' advanced MLB model projects the Astros as the most likely winner in this Braves vs. Astros prediction.
This article offers further insights into Sunday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Braves vs. Astros prediction and odds
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's MLB matchup between the Braves and Astros, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Astros a 58.4% chance of defeating the Braves. According to our model, the Braves (+1.5) have a 58.9% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has a 53.2% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Braves +1.5 (-167) / Astros -1.5 (+163)
- Moneyline: Braves +127, Astros -127
- Total: Over/Under 8.5 (+111/-115)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Astros -1.5 @ 38¢ via Novig
- Moneyline: Astros @ 56¢ via Polymarket
- Total: Over 8.5 @ 47¢ via Novig
According to our best MLB bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Sunday's MLB action between the Astros and Braves at Daikin Park is scheduled to commence at 2:10 PM ET.
- Who: Atlanta Braves vs. Houston Astros
- Date: Sunday, September 20, 2026
- Time: 2:10 PM ET/11:10AM PT
- Venue: Daikin Park
Conclusion
We predict the Astros, with a 58.4% win probability, will likely beat the Braves in Sunday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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