Sep 20, 2026
Nationals vs. Cardinals prediction: St. Louis favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [9/20/2026]
Read Article Phillies vs. Mets prediction: Philadelphia favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [9/20/2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Dimers' simulation model projects a 57.0% win probability for the Phillies at Citi Field.
The New York Mets will face the Philadelphia Phillies in MLB action at Citi Field on Sunday, starting at 1:10 PM ET.
Jonah Tong (2-1, 3.43 ERA) will get the ball for the Mets, up against Cristopher Sánchez (17-6, 2.93 ERA) for the Phillies.
Dimers' advanced MLB model projects the Phillies as the most likely winner in this Phillies vs. Mets prediction.
This article offers further insights into Sunday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Phillies vs. Mets prediction and odds
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's MLB matchup between the Phillies and Mets, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Phillies a 57.0% chance of beating the Mets. According to our model, the Mets (+1.5) have a 55.9% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has a 53.0% chance of staying under.
Latest betting odds
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Phillies -1.5 (+111) / Mets +1.5 (-113)
- Moneyline: Phillies -156, Mets +153
- Total: Over/Under 8.5 (+117/-122)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Mets +1.5 @ 53¢ via Novig
- Moneyline: Mets @ 40¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 8.5 @ 46¢ via Novig
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mets to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Sunday's MLB action between the Mets and Phillies at Citi Field is scheduled to begin at 1:10 PM ET.
- Who: Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
- Date: Sunday, September 20, 2026
- Time: 1:10 PM ET/10:10AM PT
- Venue: Citi Field
Conclusion
We predict the Phillies, with a 57.0% win probability, will likely beat the Mets in Sunday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
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