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Read Article Royals vs. Pirates prediction: Why Pittsburgh is favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [9/20/2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Dimers' simulation model projects a 50.9% win probability for the Pirates at PNC Park.
The Pittsburgh Pirates will take on the Kansas City Royals, in what is expected to be a close MLB game, at PNC Park on Sunday, starting at 1:35 PM ET.
Lake Bachar (1-4, 3.54 ERA) will start for the Pirates, up against Michael Wacha (9-9, 3.34 ERA) for the Royals.
Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Pirates a slight edge with a 50.9% win probability over the Royals.
This article offers a complete Royals vs. Pirates prediction, including best bets and picks.
Royals vs. Pirates prediction and odds
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Sunday's MLB game between the Royals and Pirates, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Pirates a 50.9% chance of defeating the Royals. According to our model, the Pirates (+1.5) have a 62.8% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 8.5 runs has a 50.6% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Royals -1.5 (+156) / Pirates +1.5 (-163)
- Moneyline: Royals -108, Pirates +105
- Total: Over/Under 8.5 (+100/-113)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Pirates +1.5 @ 62¢ via Polymarket
- Moneyline: Pirates @ +105 via BetMGM
- Total: Over 8.5 @ 50¢ via Polymarket
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Pirates to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Sunday's MLB game between the Pirates and Royals at PNC Park is scheduled to commence at 1:35 PM ET.
- Who: Kansas City Royals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
- Date: Sunday, September 20, 2026
- Time: 1:35 PM ET/10:35AM PT
- Venue: PNC Park
Conclusion
We predict the Pirates, with a 50.9% win probability, will likely beat the Royals in Sunday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
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