Sep 20, 2026
MLB picks today: Sunday's MLB best bets include Athletics vs. Guardians play [9/20/2026]
Read Article Marlins vs. Padres prediction: San Diego favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [9/20/2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Dimers' simulation model projects a 55.7% win probability for the Padres at Petco Park.
The San Diego Padres and Miami Marlins will meet in MLB action at Petco Park on Sunday, starting at 4:10 PM ET.
The Padres will have Walker Buehler (8-6, 4.58 ERA) as their starting pitcher, while the Marlins have opted for Sandy Alcantara (13-10, 3.84 ERA).
Dimers' advanced MLB model projects the Padres as the most likely winner in this Marlins vs. Padres prediction.
This article offers further insights into Sunday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Marlins vs. Padres prediction and odds
Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's MLB matchup between the Marlins and Padres, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Padres a 55.7% chance of defeating the Marlins. According to our model, the Marlins (+1.5) have a 62.4% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has a 50.2% chance of staying under.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Marlins +1.5 (-170) / Padres -1.5 (+167)
- Moneyline: Marlins +125, Padres -127
- Total: Over/Under 8.5 (+117/-120)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Padres -1.5 @ 37¢ via Novig
- Moneyline: Marlins @ 44¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 8.5 @ 46¢ via Polymarket
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Sunday's MLB action between the Padres and Marlins at Petco Park is scheduled to start at 4:10 PM ET.
- Who: Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padres
- Date: Sunday, September 20, 2026
- Time: 4:10 PM ET/1:10PM PT
- Venue: Petco Park
Conclusion
We predict the Padres, with a 55.7% win probability, will likely beat the Marlins in Sunday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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