Sep 30, 2026
Cubs vs. Padres prediction: San Diego favored to win Wednesday's MLB matchup [9/30/2026]
Read Article Red Sox vs. Yankees prediction: Yankees favored to win Wednesday's MLB matchup [9/30/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Dimers' simulation model projects a 56.2% win probability for the Yankees at Yankee Stadium.
The New York Yankees and Boston redsox are scheduled to meet in MLB action at Yankee Stadium on Wednesday, starting at 8:00 PM ET.
Max Fried (0-0, 0.00 ERA) will start on the mound for the Yankees, up against Sonny Gray (0-0, 0.00 ERA) for the Red Sox.
Dimers' proven MLB model projects the Yankees as the most likely winner in this Red Sox vs. Yankees prediction.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Wednesday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
For more, dive into Sonny Gray's projected pitching stats.
Red Sox vs. Yankees prediction and odds
Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Wednesday's MLB matchup between the Red Sox and Yankees, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Yankees a 56.2% chance of defeating the Red Sox. According to our model, the Red Sox (+1.5) have a 61.7% chance of covering the run line, while the 6.5-run over/under has a 59.0% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Red Sox +1.5 (-178) / Yankees -1.5 (+174)
- Moneyline: Red Sox +122, Yankees -125
- Total: Over/Under 6.5 (-115/+113)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Yankees -1.5 @ 36¢ via Novig
- Moneyline: Yankees @ 56¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 6.5 @ 53¢ via Novig
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 6.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Wednesday's MLB matchup between the Yankees and Red Sox at Yankee Stadium is scheduled to commence at 8:00 PM ET.
- Who: Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
- Date: Wednesday, September 30, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
- Venue: Yankee Stadium
Conclusion
We predict the Yankees, with a 56.2% win probability, will likely beat the Red Sox in Wednesday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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