Home run predictions and picks: Top bet for Wednesday has +1100 odds [9/30/2026]

• Kyle Schwarber (Phillies): 20.3% probability
• Yordan Alvarez (Astros): 17.2%
• Bryce Harper (Phillies): 14.8%
• Christian Walker (Astros): 14.7%
• Ben Rice (Yankees): 14.6%
• Isaac Paredes (Astros): 14.2%
• Jazz Chisholm (Yankees): 14.1%
• Fernando Tatis (Padres): 13.8%
• Spencer Jones (Yankees): 13.8%
• Trent Grisham (Yankees): 13.2%

Our analysis shows Schwarber leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 20.3% chance to go yard, followed by Yordan Alvarez (17.2%) and Bryce Harper (14.8%).

Christian Walker and Ben Rice are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10.

Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Wednesday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.

Wednesday's home run picks [9/30/2026]

Powered by 10,000 simulations and data-driven factors like weather and pitcher form, Dimers Pro identifies today’s top home run prop.

Sean Murphy (Braves) to hit a home run

• Probability: 11.1%
• Odds: +1100
• Edge: 2.8%
• Pitching matchup: Cristopher Sánchez
• More game projections: Phillies vs. Braves prediction (2:00 PM EDT)

Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, Atlanta slugger Sean Murphy rates as a value play at +1100 with BetRivers, showing a 2.8% edge.

Set to face Cristopher Sánchez in tonight's Phillies-Braves matchup, the data supports Murphy as one of Wednesday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.

Pro users have access to all of our home run predictions today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.

Conclusion

For September 30, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Kyle Schwarber, Yordan Alvarez and Bryce Harper projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Sean Murphy who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 2.8% edge at +1100 odds.

Dive into more MLB player projections with our list of Wednesday's top 10 pitchers by projected strikeouts

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