Sep 30, 2026
White Sox vs. Astros prediction: Houston favored to win Wednesday's MLB matchup [9/30/2026]
Read Article MLB postseason player props today: Wednesday's best props include Sonny Gray [9/30/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get MLB player props today with projections for Wednesday's games.
Dimers' MLB player props are live for September 30, 2026, with today's top prop bets led by the likes of Sonny Gray, Kevin Gausman and Nick Pivetta.
Our MLB player props model runs continuously to analyze every postseason matchup—including Phillies vs. Braves and White Sox vs. Astros—and surface the best MLB player prop bets across the market.
List of MLB prop picks for Wednesday's playoffs, 9/30
Sourced from 50+ total MLB props on site today, below are the top 10 MLB player props for September 30, ranked by probability.
Sonny Gray over 3.5 hits allowed (-152)
- Edge: 6.6%
- Probability: 66.9%
- Game: Red Sox vs. Yankees (8:00PM ET)
Our model has flagged value on Red Sox' Sonny Gray over 3.5 hits allowed. A probability of 66.9% gives this play an edge of 6.6% at -152 odds.
Kevin Gausman over 1.5 earned runs (-145)
- Edge: 4.5%
- Probability: 63.7%
- Game: Cubs vs. Padres (10:00PM ET)
Kevin Gausman’s earned runs prop shows a 63.7% probability and an 4.5% edge at -145 odds, according to our model.
Nick Pivetta over 1.5 earned runs (-115)
- Edge: 8.3%
- Probability: 61.8%
- Game: Cubs vs. Padres (10:00PM ET)
The data highlights value on Nick Pivetta over 1.5 earned runs, with simulations showing a 61.8% probability and an 8.3% edge at -115.
Sonny Gray over 1.5 earned runs (-132)
- Edge: 4.5%
- Probability: 61.4%
- Game: Red Sox vs. Yankees (8:00PM ET)
Our model finds value on Sonny Gray over 1.5 earned runs, with a 61.4% probability and an edge of 4.5% at -132 odds.
Sonny Gray over 14.5 outs recorded (-120)
- Edge: 5.1%
- Probability: 59.7%
- Game: Red Sox vs. Yankees (8:00PM ET)
Simulations indicate value on Sonny Gray over 14.5 outs recorded for Red Sox, showing an edge of 5.1% at -120 odds.
Max Fried under 5.5 strikeouts (-125)
- Edge: 2.6%
- Probability: 58.2%
- Game: Red Sox vs. Yankees (8:00PM ET)
Max Fried’s strikeouts prop shows an edge of 2.6% at -125 odds, supported by a 58.2% probability according to our model.
Max Fried over 1.5 earned runs (-115)
- Edge: 2.8%
- Probability: 56.3%
- Game: Red Sox vs. Yankees (8:00PM ET)
Our model highlights value on Max Fried over 1.5 earned runs for Yankees, with a 56.3% probability and a 2.8% edge at -115 odds.
Nick Pivetta over 3.5 hits allowed (-106)
- Edge: 4.2%
- Probability: 55.6%
- Game: Cubs vs. Padres (10:00PM ET)
The data shows value on Nick Pivetta over 3.5 hits allowed, supported by a 55.6% probability at -106 odds and an edge of 4.2%.
Austin Wells to get a hit (+110)
- Edge: 2.5%
- Probability: 50.1%
- Game: Red Sox vs. Yankees (8:00PM ET)
A 2.5% edge on the to get a hit line makes Austin Wells a value play in Red Sox vs. Yankees, supported by a 50.1% probability at +110 odds.
Kevin Gausman over 4.5 hits allowed (+117)
- Edge: 2.6%
- Probability: 48.7%
- Game: Cubs vs. Padres (10:00PM ET)
Simulations show value on Kevin Gausman over 4.5 hits allowed here, with a 48.7% probability and 2.6% edge at +117 odds.
MLB player prop summary: Wednesday, September 30, 2026
A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 6:06PM ET:
| Matchup | Prop | Odds | Edge | Prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox vs. Yankees | Sonny Gray o3.5 hits allowed | -152 @ DraftKings | 6.6% | 66.9% |
| Cubs vs. Padres | Kevin Gausman o1.5 earned runs | -145 @ BetMGM | 4.5% | 63.7% |
| Cubs vs. Padres | Nick Pivetta o1.5 earned runs | -115 @ BetMGM | 4.5% | 61.4% |
| Red Sox vs. Yankees | Sonny Gray o1.5 earned runs | -132 @ DraftKings | 4.5% | 61.4% |
| Red Sox vs. Yankees | Sonny Gray o14.5 outs recorded | -120 @ FanDuel | 5.1% | 59.7% |
| Red Sox vs. Yankees | Max Fried u5.5 strikeouts | -125 @ DraftKings | 2.6% | 58.2% |
| Red Sox vs. Yankees | Max Fried o1.5 earned runs | -115 @ BetMGM | 2.8% | 56.3% |
| Cubs vs. Padres | Nick Pivetta o3.5 hits allowed | -106 @ DraftKings | 4.2% | 55.6% |
| Red Sox vs. Yankees | Austin Wells to get a hit | +110 @ BetMGM | 2.5% | 50.1% |
| Cubs vs. Padres | Kevin Gausman o4.5 hits allowed | +117 @ DraftKings | 2.6% | 48.7% |
Conclusion
For September 30, 2026, our MLB prop bets feature players such as Sonny Gray, Kevin Gausman and Nick Pivetta. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.
Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers promotes responsible gambling.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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