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Read Article Home run predictions for Wednesday include Kyle Schwarber, Ben Rice [8/5/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get home run predictions today backed by expert analysis of Wednesday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Wednesday, August 5, 2026, feature Kyle Schwarber as the top projected hitter, according to Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Wednesday's HR projections come from our home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the most likely home run hitters today.
Home run predictions for August 5, 2026
See which hitters join Schwarber on today’s list — plus a long-shot pick the model rates as value at +860.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) | 25.3% |
| Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) | 20.9% |
| Ben Rice (Yankees) | 20.5% |
| Jake Burger (Rangers) | 20.1% |
| Jazz Chisholm (Yankees) | 20.1% |
| Yordan Alvarez (Astros) | 20.0% |
| Eugenio Suárez (Reds) | 19.8% |
| Spencer Jones (Yankees) | 19.3% |
| Bryce Harper (Phillies) | 19.0% |
| Trent Grisham (Yankees) | 18.7% |
Our analysis shows Schwarber leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 25.3% chance to go yard, followed by Shohei Ohtani (20.9%) and Ben Rice (20.5%).
Jake Burger and Jazz Chisholm are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR prediction for Wednesday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Wednesday's home run picks [8/5/2026]
Dimers Pro’s 10,000-simulation model, factoring in weather and pitching matchups, reveals today’s highest-rated home run prop.
Yainer Diaz (Astros) to hit a home run
- Probability: 14.6%
- Odds: +860
- Edge: 4.2%
- Game: Blue Jays vs. Astros (2:10 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Jameson Taillon
Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, Houston slugger Yainer Diaz rates as a value play at +860 with DraftKings Sportsbook, showing a 4.2% edge.
Set to face Jameson Taillon in tonight's Blue Jays-Astros matchup, the data supports Diaz as one of Wednesday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to a total of six home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For August 5, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Kyle Schwarber, Shohei Ohtani and Ben Rice projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Yainer Diaz who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 4.2% edge at +860 odds.
Dive into more MLB player projections with our list of Wednesday's top 10 pitchers by projected strikeouts
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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