Home run predictions for Dinger Tuesday include Aaron Judge, Fernando Tatis [9/29/2026]

• Aaron Judge (Yankees): 20.4% probability
• Yordan Alvarez (Astros): 17.2%
• Ben Rice (Yankees): 15.4%
• Munetaka Murakami (White Sox): 14.8%
• Fernando Tatis (Padres): 14.7%
• Christian Walker (Astros): 14.6%
• Spencer Jones (Yankees): 14.4%
• Isaac Paredes (Astros): 13.9%
• Manny Machado (Padres): 13.2%
• Kyle Schwarber (Phillies): 13.1%

Our analysis shows Judge leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 20.4% chance to go deep, followed by Yordan Alvarez (17.2%) and Ben Rice (15.4%).

Munetaka Murakami and Fernando Tatis are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.

Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR prediction for Tuesday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.

Tuesday's home run picks [9/29/2026]

Dimers Pro’s 10,000-simulation model, factoring in weather and pitching matchups, surfaces today’s highest-rated home run prop.

Trevor Story (Red Sox) to hit a home run

• Probability: 10.3%
• Odds: +1300
• Edge: 3.2%
• Pitching matchup: Cam Schlittler
• More game projections: Red Sox vs. Yankees prediction (8:00 PM EDT)

Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, Boston slugger Trevor Story rates as a value play at +1300 with Fanatics, showing a 3.2% edge.

With Cam Schlittler on the mound for the Yankees, the data supports Story as one of Tuesday’s strongest value spots among available home run props — and a natural fit for Dinger Tuesday, a night built around finding value in long-ball matchups.

Originally sparked by sportsbook offers rewarding bonus bets for each home run hit by a selected player, Dinger Tuesday has evolved into a weekly tradition for MLB bettors — where clear, model-driven insights like these can help separate signal from noise.

Pro users have access to a total of six home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.

Conclusion

For September 29, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Aaron Judge, Yordan Alvarez and Ben Rice projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Trevor Story who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 3.2% edge at +1300 odds.

Dive into more MLB player projections with our list of Tuesday's top 10 pitchers by projected strikeouts

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