Home run predictions for Friday include Nick Kurtz, Jo Adell [7/31/2026]
Get home run predictions today backed by expert analysis of Friday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Friday, July 31, 2026, feature Nick Kurtz as the top projected hitter, according to Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Friday's HR projections pull from our full list of home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the most likely home run hitters today.
Home run predictions for July 31, 2026
See which hitters join Kurtz on today’s list — plus a long-shot pick the model rates as value at +600.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Nick Kurtz (Athletics) | 23.4% |
| Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) | 22.5% |
| Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) | 20.9% |
| Pete Alonso (Orioles) | 19.6% |
| Jo Adell (Angels) | 19.2% |
| Cal Raleigh (Mariners) | 19.0% |
| Fernando Tatis (Padres) | 19.0% |
| Hunter Goodman (Rockies) | 18.9% |
| Tyler Soderstrom (Athletics) | 18.5% |
| Manny Machado (Padres) | 17.7% |
Our analysis shows Kurtz leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 23.4% chance to go yard, followed by Shohei Ohtani (22.5%) and Kyle Schwarber (20.9%).
Pete Alonso and Jo Adell are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Friday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Friday's home run picks [7/31/2026]
After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and weighing key variables like weather and pitching form, Dimers Pro’s data highlights today’s top home run prop.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays) to hit a home run
- Probability: 16.5%
- Odds: +600
- Edge: 2.2%
- Game: Cardinals vs. Blue Jays (7:07 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Kyle Leahy
Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, Toronto slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. rates as a value play at +600 with FanDuel Sportsbook, showing a 2.2% edge.
With Kyle Leahy on the mound for the Cardinals, the data supports Jr. as one of Friday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to all of our home run predictions today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For July 31, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Nick Kurtz, Shohei Ohtani and Kyle Schwarber projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Vladimir Guerrero Jr. who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 2.2% edge at +600 odds.
Dive into more MLB player projections with our list of Friday's top 10 pitchers by projected strikeouts
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
