Pirates vs. Reds prediction: Why Pittsburgh is favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [7/31/2026]
Get Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds predictions for MLB Friday.
The Cincinnati Reds will take on the Pittsburgh Pirates, in what is expected to be a close MLB game, at Great American Ball Park on Friday, commencing at 6:10 PM ET.
Hunter Greene (2-2, 7.06 ERA) will be the starting pitcher for the Reds, up against Paul Skenes (9-9, 3.66 ERA) for the Pirates.
Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Pirates a slight edge with a 53.6% win probability over the Reds.
This article offers further insights into Friday's Pirates vs. Reds matchup, including best bets and picks.
Pirates vs. Reds prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Pirates a 53.6% chance of beating the Reds.
According to our model, the Reds (+1.5) have a 58.9% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 7.5 runs has a 56.7% chance of going over,.
Pirates vs. Reds odds [7/31/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Pirates | Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | -1.5 (+138) | +1.5 (-144) |
| Moneyline | -122 | +120 |
| Total | o7.5 (-116) | u7.5 (+113) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Pirates vs. Reds picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Reds +1.5 | -144 |
| Moneyline | Reds | +120 |
| Total | Over 7.5 | -116 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Pirates vs. Reds game-day updates and essential details
Friday's MLB action between the Reds and Pirates at Great American Ball Park is scheduled to begin at 6:10 PM ET.
- Who: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds
- Date: Friday, July 31, 2026
- Time: 6:10 PM ET/3:10PM PT
- Venue: Great American Ball Park
Conclusion
We predict the Pirates, with a 53.6% win probability, will likely beat the Reds in Friday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
