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Read Article Thunder vs. Grizzlies prediction, odds, pick for Nov. 6, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dimers Data
Our Thunder vs. Grizzlies predictions include win probabilities, the latest odds, and player projections.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are favored to beat the Memphis Grizzlies at FedExForum on Friday (8:00 PM ET), according to Dimers' NBA model.
Our Thunder vs. Grizzlies prediction gives Oklahoma City a 62.9% chance of winning, but the latest odds suggest there's betting value on the Grizzlies to cover at +3.5.
Thunder vs. Grizzlies key predictions
- Predicted score: Thunder 113-110 Grizzlies
- Thunder win probability: 62.9%
- Grizzlies win probability: 37.1%
- Grizzlies +3.5 spread: 54.4% cover probability
- Over 223.5 points: 51.0% probability
Our NBA predictions project each team's score based on player performance, expected minutes, matchups, availability, and home-court advantage.
We calculate win, spread, and total probabilities from these projections, comparing them against current odds to find betting value.
Thunder vs. Grizzlies odds
Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets we track.
- Thunder moneyline: 60¢ (Polymarket)
- Grizzlies moneyline: 40¢ (Novig)
- Thunder -3.5: -119 (DraftKings)
- Grizzlies +3.5: -105 (DraftKings)
- Over 223.5 points: 50¢ (Novig)
- Under 223.5 points: 50¢ (Novig)
Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.
Thunder vs. Grizzlies pick: Grizzlies +3.5 (-105)
Our model makes the Thunder the likelier winner, but our best value bet is the Grizzlies to cover the +3.5 spread at -105 on DraftKings.
Those odds give the Grizzlies an implied cover probability of 51.2%, while our model puts it at 54.4%.
That's a 3.2% edge, the largest across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets for this game.
Thunder vs. Grizzlies player projections
Dimers' NBA player projections cover points, rebounds, assists, and more, accounting for recent performance, expected minutes, lineup changes, and defensive matchups.
Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the scoring projections for this matchup with 31.4 points, plus 7.0 assists and 4.1 rebounds. The Grizzlies have three players among the top five projected scorers, compared to the Thunder's two.
Top 5 projected scorers
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder): 31.4 points
- Ty Jerome (Grizzlies): 22.2
- Ajay Mitchell (Thunder): 18.5
- Cameron Boozer (Grizzlies): 16.6
- Cedric Coward (Grizzlies): 14.6
Projections are estimates, not betting recommendations. Compare them with available odds to judge value.
Get every Thunder vs. Grizzlies prediction with Dimers Pro
Dimers Pro members get full access to our Thunder vs. Grizzlies predictions, including:
- Best bets across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets
- Points, rebounds, and assists projections for players on both teams
- Player prop edges for points, rebounds, assists, three-pointers, steals, and blocks
Thunder vs. Grizzlies game details
- Matchup: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies
- Date: Friday, November 6, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: FedExForum
About this prediction
This preview uses predictions from our NBA models, presented through a template written by our editorial team. Matchup details fill in automatically.
Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and can change as new information comes in, such as injury news or lineup changes. Learn how our predictions work.
Dimers encourages responsible gambling.
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Dimers Data Dimers Data publishes sports predictions and betting insights powered by Dimers' proprietary predictive models. The team develops and maintains the automated publishing systems used to deliver consistent, data-driven coverage across major sports.
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