Cowboys vs. Eagles Prediction: Javonte Williams runs it in on Monday Night Football

From scoring the first touchdown of the entire 2025 NFL season at Lincoln Financial Field, to heading back there as the one part of the Dallas offense that still works.

Javonte Williams' Cowboys career started in Philadelphia. On the night the Eagles raised their Super Bowl LIX banner, the former Bronco punched it in from a yard out on Dallas' opening drive for the first score of the NFL year, then added a second touchdown before the night was through. Dallas lost 24-20 anyway - its fourth straight loss at the Linc, a run that goes back to 2022.

A little over a year later, a lot has changed. Williams signed a three-year, $24 million deal in February, and through six games the 26-year-old has eight touchdowns, seven of them on the ground. He has scored in five of those six games. His six touchdowns through the first four weeks were the most by a Cowboy since Emmitt Smith had nine in 1995.

The problem is everything around him. Dallas is 2-4, Dak Prescott has four touchdowns and four interceptions over his last four starts, and the Cowboys rank 31st in the league in rushing at 76 yards per game. That last number has more to do with the scoreboard than the running back. Head coach Brian Schottenheimer said this week that Dallas still hasn't played a "normal" game, the kind where it isn't trailing and throwing its way back.

Monday night might be the closest thing to one they've had all year.

The Eagles are without Jalen Hurts, who is on injured reserve and out for the season after doctors found blood clots in his lungs (his agent has said she expects a full recovery). Tanner McKee makes his second straight start, the first back-to-back starts of his four-year career. DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks are both out, and Saquon Barkley is questionable with a hamstring injury, though he is expected to play. Philadelphia has lost four in a row.

That's how Dallas ends up a road favorite in the building where it keeps losing. And it's why our favorite trade on Monday isn't about who wins. It's about who runs it in.

Our NFL predictions model gives the Cowboys a 67.7% chance to win, and our Cowboys vs. Eagles prediction is a 24-19 Dallas win. It also gives Williams a 62.3% chance to score, making him the most likely touchdown scorer on either side. As of Sunday afternoon, Kalshi has him at 59c.

Dimers trade of the night, via Kalshi

Prices, model output and everything else can be found in our Cowboys vs. Eagles prediction hub.

Why are the Cowboys favored at a stadium where they keep losing?

Dallas has dropped its last four trips to Philadelphia: 26-17 in 2022, 28-23 in 2023, 41-7 in 2024 and 24-20 in last season's opener. The Eagles are 15-3 at the Linc against the NFC East under Nick Sirianni.

This isn't that Eagles team, though. McKee went 26 of 45 for 215 yards and a touchdown in last week's 25-14 home loss to Carolina, and Philadelphia has run for just 57 yards on 31 carries across its last two games, its lowest two-game total since 2005. Now McKee is down his top two receivers as well.

Kalshi has Dallas at 68c to win. Our model has them at 67.7%. On the spread, "Dallas wins by over 4.5 points" is trading at 51c against our 51.6%. Kalshi has the Cowboys favored and our model agrees almost to the decimal, so there's no real edge in picking a side. That's exactly why we're more interested in how Dallas gets it done.

The total tells a similar story. The model's 24-19 projection lands at 43 points, under the 44.5 line, and it gives the under a 53.5% chance against a 53c price on Kalshi (a No on over 44.5). It's a slight lean, not something we'd build a position around.

Can Javonte Williams finally get a "normal" game?

The knock on the former North Carolina star this season has been volume, not production. He carried just 11 times for 41 yards at Green Bay last week, a season low, because Dallas trailed by double digits for the entire second half. He has yet to crack 100 rushing yards in a game, topping out at 98 against Baltimore.

Near the goal line, though, Dallas' No. 33 has been about as reliable as it gets. He scored three times against Houston in Week 4, the most rushing touchdowns by a Cowboys running back in a game since Tony Pollard had three against Chicago in 2022, and he has found the end zone in every game since.

Javonte Williams scores his third TD of the second half and gives the @dallascowboys the lead!

@DALvsHOU on FOX/FOX One
Stream on @NFLPlus

— NFL (@NFL) October 4, 2026

The matchup helps. Carolina's Chuba Hubbard just ran 28 times for 120 yards and a touchdown against this Eagles defense, and with McKee under center, Dallas shouldn't need to abandon the run to chase points.

Kalshi already has Williams priced as the most likely scorer on the board at 59c. Our model likes him even more at 62.3%.

If you want a bigger payout, Williams 70+ rushing yards is 44c against a model projection of 71 yards. Just know that's the more aggressive play: he has only gone over 70 once this season.

Should you trade CeeDee Lamb or George Pickens to score?

Our model says neither, at least not at these prices.

Lamb is third in the NFL with 48 catches and saw 18 targets at Lambeau, so it's no surprise Kalshi has him at 44c to score. The model has him at 38.3%. Pickens is priced at 36c against our 27.4% after a week where he was limited Thursday with a shoulder injury before practicing fully on Friday.

That makes the No side the play. Buying No on a Pickens touchdown costs 65c, and our model has him not scoring 72.6% of the time, a 7.6-point edge and the biggest on the board. It fits the rest of the story, too. If Dallas leans on Williams inside the 10, there are fewer red zone looks to go around, so a Pickens No pairs naturally with a Williams Yes.

That doesn't mean fading the Dallas receivers across the board. The model projects Lamb for 85 receiving yards, and his 80+ yards market is 52c.

What changes if Saquon Barkley plays?

Barkley hasn't played since hurting his hamstring early in Week 4, but he finished the week with a full practice on Saturday and NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported he is expected to play. Our model is already projecting him for 70 rushing yards and a 39.8% chance to score.

Kalshi hadn't listed any Barkley markets as of Sunday, so check back before kickoff.

If you want a piece of the Philadelphia side, the model's best Eagles price belongs to Dameon Pierce, who was the only Eagles back to carry the ball against Carolina. He's 12c to score on Kalshi against our 17.3%, and that's with Barkley projected to play. If Barkley is limited or ruled out, Pierce becomes a much bigger part of the plan.

Cowboys vs. Eagles prop edges on Kalshi

If you want something alongside the trade of the night, here's how our NFL props model lines up against Kalshi:

Every player number for Monday night is on our NFL player projections page.

Three ways to play it

1. Full size on Javonte. Buy Yes on Javonte Williams 1+ touchdowns at 59c. Each contract pays $1 if he finds the end zone. He has scored in five of six games, and Kalshi and our model both have him as the most likely scorer on the field.

2. Split it with the Pickens fade. Put half on Williams Yes at 59c and half on No for Pickens 1+ touchdowns at 65c. Both positions lean on the same idea. If Dallas finishes its drives on the ground, they win together.

3. Buy now, manage in-game. Buy Yes on Williams 70+ rushing yards at 44c. Kalshi positions can be sold before the final whistle, so if he's well on his way at halftime with Dallas in front, you can lock in profit. If Dallas falls behind early and the run game disappears like it did at Green Bay, you can cut it.

For more of the week's top plays, check out our NFL best bets and the latest NFL odds, or unlock every model edge with Dimers Pro.

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Cowboys vs. Eagles FAQ

What is the best Kalshi trade for Cowboys vs. Eagles on Monday Night Football? Our trade of the night is Javonte Williams to score, buying Yes on Williams 1+ touchdowns at 59c. Our model makes it 62.3%. The best fade is No on George Pickens 1+ touchdowns at 65c, which we make 72.6%.

Who will win Cowboys vs. Eagles? Our model gives the Cowboys a 67.7% chance to win and projects a 24-19 final. The Eagles are at 32.3%.

What are the Cowboys vs. Eagles odds on Kalshi? As of Sunday afternoon, Kalshi had the Cowboys at 68c and the Eagles at 34c to win, Cowboys -4.5 at 51c, and Over 44.5 points at 48c.

Why isn't Jalen Hurts playing against the Cowboys? Hurts is on injured reserve and out for the season after doctors found blood clots in his lungs. His agent has said she expects a full recovery. Tanner McKee makes his second straight start in his place.

Will Javonte Williams score a touchdown against the Eagles? Our model gives Williams a 62.3% chance to score, compared with a 59c price on Kalshi. He has eight touchdowns this season and has scored in five of Dallas' six games.

Can I sell a Kalshi position before the game ends? Yes. You can sell a position at the current market price at any point before the market settles, whether you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss. Our Kalshi review covers how the platform works.