Hitting the legs: Bears running backs to fire against the Eagles

Case Keenum's last game vs. the Eagles came eight years ago, and it didn't go well. He was playing for Minnesota in the 2017 NFC Championship Game, and Philadelphia won 38-7 on its way to a Super Bowl.

On Monday night he gets another go at them, this time at Soldier Field. Only now he's 38, he hasn't played a regular-season snap since 2023, and he's starting only because Caleb Williams pulled a hamstring and Tyson Bagent missed most of the week in the concussion protocol.

And while much of this week's talk around the Bears has been about their issues at quarterback, head coach Ben Johnson will be leaning on another part of his offense to get them through Monday night.

Chicago's offense runs through two running backs, and it will again on Monday no matter who is under center.

Our model agrees, and one of D'Andre Shift's markets on Kalshi is priced too low.

Dimers trade of the night, via Kalshi

Price, model output and everything else can be found in our Eagles vs. Bears prediction hub.

How good have Swift and Monangai been?

They've been the best thing about the Bears so far.

Chicago is averaging 212.5 rushing yards per game through two weeks, at over six yards a carry. That's what Johnson's offense looks like when it's working, and he can lean on it harder now that the quarterback room is patched together.

Swift opened the season with 124 rushing yards and three touchdowns against Carolina. Monangai added 100 yards on 10 carries in the same game, including a 61-yard score, and he's getting a steady 12 touches a week as the second back.

Week 2 against Minnesota was tougher, and the Bears managed just 3.5 yards per carry in a game that was heavily affected by bad weather. Swift still found another way to help, catching five passes for 54 yards. When the running lanes closed, Chicago threw him the ball instead.

That matters for Monday. With Keenum at quarterback, a safe completion to the running back is exactly the kind of throw the Bears will want to make.

The Bears have been dominant in the running game this season

Why the Eagles should worry about the run

Philadelphia is 2-0, but stopping the run hasn't come easily. The Eagles have given up 120+ rushing yards in each of their first two games, including 132 to Washington in their season opener.

Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis are the reason nobody expects Chicago to run all over them. Keenum himself said this week the pair are "some of the best two guys up front" in the game, and Carter is playing through a wrist injury.

But having good players up front hasn't stopped teams from running on Philadelphia so far. And Eagles DC Vic Fangio knows the Bears as well as anyone, having run their defense from 2015 to 2018. He'll load the box and dare Keenum to beat him through the air.

That's a bet Keenum is unlikely to win. It's also the bet that keeps the ball in Swift's hands.

What the Dimers model says

Our model has the Eagles winning 65% of the time and projects a 22-18 final. It doesn't expect a Bears upset, and this article isn't arguing for one with the Dimers model agreeing that the moneyline odds are correct when compared to the market with little value being offered.

What it does expect is a Chicago offense that goes nowhere without its backs:

Keenum's number is priced about right, so there isn't much to trade there. The value is with the two backs.

Game script: the risk and why it's smaller than it looks

The obvious worry is the scoreboard. If Philadelphia goes up by a couple scores early, Chicago might stop running and start throwing out of necessity.

Two things work against that. The Eagles are favored, but Kalshi only has them winning by 4+ at 51c and by 10+ at 34c at the time of writing, so traders don't see this turning into a blowout. And Swift's value doesn't vanish when the Bears fall behind, because he's also a receiver out of the backfield, as Week 2 showed.

A touchdown can come from a carry or a catch. That's why the anytime TD is our position rather than a straight yardage line. 

Three ways to play it

Swift anytime TD, full size. This is the cleanest play. You're buying at 41c something our model makes closer to 46c, and it pays whether Chicago leads, trails or grinds the game out.

Split it across both backs. Half on the Swift touchdown, half on Monangai 40+ rushing yards at 49c. Both are the same theory, that Chicago runs the ball, and together they cover the scenario where Monangai takes goal-line work from Swift.

Buy now, check back at 6:45 ET. Johnson could still change his mind at quarterback now that Bagent is cleared. A more mobile quarterback in Bagent would change the run-game read a little, not the overall idea. Because Kalshi contracts trade on an order book up to settlement, you can open a position now and sell out if the inactives change things.

Kalshi promo code "DIMERS": $25 bonus for Eagles vs. Bears

Eagles vs. Bears is one of the busiest NFL markets on Kalshi this week, with more than 1.3 million contracts traded on the moneyline alone. The Kalshi promo code DIMERS is verified and active: enter it in the promo/referral field at registration, deposit $25, and a $25 bonus lands on top for $50 in total trading funds on a CFTC-regulated exchange. That covers a position on the Swift touchdown at 41c with plenty left over for Monangai's rushing line on the same game. The code has to go in at sign-up and can't be added to an existing account. New users only, one per person, and not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ or OH. Bonus funds must be traded before any resulting funds can be withdrawn. Claim the Kalshi promo code DIMERS here.

FAQ

What's Dimers' best trade for Eagles vs. Bears? D'Andre Swift anytime touchdown. Our model gives him a 45.6% chance of scoring against a Kalshi price of 41c.

Who is starting at quarterback for the Bears? Case Keenum is expected to start. Caleb Williams is out with a hamstring injury, and Tyson Bagent has cleared the concussion protocol but missed too much of the week's preparation to start.

How many rushing yards is D'Andre Swift projected for? Our model projects Swift for 67 rushing yards and Kyle Monangai for 45.

What's the Eagles vs. Bears line?Philadelphia by 3.5, with the total sitting around 41.5.

Can I sell a Kalshi position before the game ends?Yes. Contracts trade on an order book until settlement, so a Yes bought at 41c can be sold back at whatever the market is offering at any point before the final whistle.