Vikings vs. Buccaneers prediction: Why Minnesota is favored to win in NFL Week 3 [2026]

Since our Vikings-Buccaneers predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL game between the Vikings and Buccaneers, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Vikings a 58.0% chance of beating the Buccaneers in Week 3 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Vikings winning 22-20.

Key factors favoring the Vikings:

• Minnesota Vikings Power Rankings
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Change / Form
• Minnesota Vikings QB Change / Form

According to our model, the Vikings (-1.5) have a 51.4% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 42.5 points has a 50.8% chance of staying under.

The main contributing factors to the under being more likely are:

• Weather / Conditions
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pace

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 3 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Vikings -1.5 (+104) / Buccaneers +1.5 (-108)
• Moneyline: Vikings -108, Buccaneers +106
• Total: Over/Under 42.5 (+100/-102)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Vikings -1.5 @ 49¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Vikings @ 52¢ via Novig
• Total: Under 42.5 @ 50¢ via Novig

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Vikings to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Vikings vs. Buccaneers TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Vikings vs. Buccaneers?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 3, Aaron Jones is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Vikings vs. Buccaneers.

Our projections give Jones a 44.8% chance of scoring a TD at Raymond James Stadium, while the running back is an 11.9% chance of registering the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Minnesota Vikings

• Aaron Jones (RB): 44.8% probability
• Justin Jefferson (WR): 36.8%
• Jordan Addison (WR): 24.4%
• T.J. Hockenson (TE): 21.2%
• Kyler Murray (QB): 19.3%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Bucky Irving (RB): 41.0% prob.
• Emeka Egbuka (WR): 26.1%
• Kenny Gainwell (RB): 23.6%
• Chris Godwin (WR): 21.7%
• Cade Otton (TE): 17.2%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Minnesota Vikings

• Aaron Jones (RB): 11.9% prob.
• Justin Jefferson (WR): 9.2%
• Jordan Addison (WR): 5.6%
• T.J. Hockenson (TE): 4.8%
• Kyler Murray (QB): 4.3%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Bucky Irving (RB): 10.3% prob.
• Emeka Egbuka (WR): 5.9%
• Kenny Gainwell (RB): 5.2%
• Chris Godwin (WR): 4.8%
• Cade Otton (TE): 3.7%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Vikings and Buccaneers. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 3 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Vikings' Kyler Murray is projected for 212 passing yards, while the Buccaneers' Baker Mayfield is expected to throw for 216 yards.

Vikings rushing

• Aaron Jones: 55 yds
• Kyler Murray: 29 yds
• Demond Claiborne: 11 yds

Buccaneers rushing

• Bucky Irving: 58 yds
• Kenny Gainwell: 25 yds
• Baker Mayfield: 21 yds

Vikings receiving

• Justin Jefferson: 76 yds
• Jordan Addison: 42 yds
• T.J. Hockenson: 35 yds
• Jauan Jennings: 21 yds
• Aaron Jones: 16 yds

Buccaneers receiving

• Emeka Egbuka: 54 yds
• Chris Godwin: 40 yds
• Cade Otton: 31 yds
• Ted Hurst: 31 yds
• Jalen McMillan: 20 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 3 action between the Buccaneers and Vikings at Raymond James Stadium is scheduled to begin at 4:05 PM ET.

• Who: Minnesota Vikings vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Date: Sunday, September 27, 2026
• Time: 4:05 PM ET/1:05PM PT
• Venue: Raymond James Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Vikings, with a 58.0% win probability, will likely beat the Buccaneers in Week 3 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.