NFL Week 1 betting preview: The 5 offseason moves that will swing matchups

Every NFL offseason produces its share of headline transactions, shaking up both Week 1 and season-long NFL predictions, but not every major signing moves the needle early on. 

New roles, new coaches and new rosters make NFL betting more unpredictable at the start of the season, putting an emphasis on strong data to help you look beyond the headlines and at the numbers within the matchup.

With the help of our Dimers Pro NFL models, we've found the five moves that are most likely to swing matchups when Week 1 kicks off.

EDGE Myles Garrett & CB Trent McDuffie (Rams)

Game: Rams vs. 49ers

Okay, this one is technically two (or even three) signings, but they all contribute to a massive upgrade to the Los Angeles Rams' defense.

The Rams' additions of Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie give Los Angeles what could be the best defense in the league, especially with Aaron Donald coming out of retirement to rejoin his former team.

That talent shows up immediately in Week 1's trip to Australia against the 49ers in which Dimers has the Rams at 62.9% to win, and no betting value found on the Niners. Our model is split 50/50 on the 3.5-point spread, but that doesn't leave out the possibility of a dominant Rams performance with a late cover by the Niners in a comeback attempt.

The defensive combination of an elite pass rush and shutdown coverage should be on full display, as long as the lengthy trip doesn't present too much of a challenge.

WR DJ Moore (Bills)

Game: Bills vs. Texans

Following another disappointing playoff exit and a coaching change, Buffalo paired a speedy, proven receiver in DJ Moore with a top-tier quarterback in Josh Allen, who has needed a true top-end weapon since the departure of Stefon Diggs.

It looks to pay early dividends: Dimers gives the Bills a 58.1% win probability and 51.4% chance to cover the 1.5-point spread against a Texans defense that ranked among the league's best last season, along with a projected over on the 44.5-point total.

Dimers' NFL player projections.

Both markets come with a betting edge for standalone value, but furthermore, the numbers point to the same thing, and that's real offensive upside for Buffalo out of the gate in what's effectively a Super Bowl-or-bust year.

Moore himself draws a 27.2% probability to score, with a projection of 3.6 receptions and 50.4 receiving yards via Dimers NFL player projections.

WR Jaylen Waddle (Broncos)

Game: Broncos vs. Chiefs

Denver's playoff run came to halt with the injury to QB Bo Nix, but that wasn't their only issue last season.

The WR corps remained one of the least remarkable in the league, but has added a proven receiving talent in former Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle, giving Nix a group that now includes Waddle and Courtland Sutton alongside emerging young wideouts Troy Franklin and Marvin Mims.

It's a deeper, more encouraging room than the Broncos had a year ago, and Dimers gives Denver a 51.9% probability to cover the spread on the road against Kansas City in Week 1, reflecting mild but positive confidence in the passing game on the road against a Chiefs team looking to put last season's disappointment well in the rearview.

Waddle gets a 30.3% probability to score and a respectable projection of 59.8 receiving yards on 4.3 receptions.

QB Kyler Murray (Vikings)

Game: Vikings vs. Packers

Kyler Murray gets a fresh start in Minnesota, and despite his struggles, the surrounding talent is hard to overlook: WRs Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, and TE T.J. Hockenson give him no shortage of weapons in the passing game.

Dimers projects a 55.4% win probability for the Vikings against Green Bay in Week 1, as well as a 54.3% probability of the game going over the 45.5-point total.

Even a quarterback looking for redemption like Murray can be productive quickly with this level of weaponry already in place around him.

Murray projects for 224.4 passing yards on 21.2 completions to go with 28.7 rushing yards and 21.1% anytime TD probability.

S Caleb Downs (Cowboys)

Game: Cowboys vs. Giants

The Cowboys put up nearly 28 points per game last season as a fringe Top 5 offense, but they also allowed 30.1 points per game last season, worst in the NFL.

Addressing that massive flaw was the No.1 priority for Dallas in the offseason behind retaining WR George Pickens. The offseason defensive rebuild featured the additions of veterans Von Miller and Rashan Gary, but the bigger swing may be rookie safety Caleb Downs.

The Cowboys were consistently burned by wideouts, especially those with top-gear speed, last season and Downs looks to be a big answer to that deficiency, with the Giants' top passing options Malik Nabers and Isaiah Likely projected for 66.2 and 38.5 receiving yards, respectively.

Dimers projects a commanding Week 1 result for the Cowboys on the road against the Giants at MetLife Stadium, giving Dallas a 61.3% win probability, 54.7% to cover -2.5 and holding New York to an average of 22 points, an early signal that last year's defensive floor has been raised.

Bet on NFL in 2026 with Dimers Pro

Dimers Pro is your go-to resource for the NFL season, already off to a successful start in college football.

You can find picks, props and predictions for every single NFL game, from Week 1 through Super Bowl LXI via Dimers' NFL predictions.

Dimers Pro subscribers can also access recommended bets, edge ratings, Signals, and the best available prices throughout the season with a Dimers Pro football season pass, giving complete access to both NFL and college football, as well as all in-season sports during that time.