Polymarket "Trade of the Day" for College Football Week 11 finds value in Kentucky vs. Florida

Week 11 of college football is here, with college football predictions data from Dimers to back up every move you make from the midweek action through the all-day Saturday slate, whether making long-term championship picks or trading college football on prediction markets.

Prediction markets are on the rise and with more capital moving through platforms like Polymarket than ever before, this is shaping up to be the most-traded college football season yet.

Dimers’ “Trade of the Day” is back for another round on Saturday, November 14, in Florida vs. Kentucky.

To maximize today’s trade value on Polymarket, sign up with the invite code “DIMERS” to get a $25 trading bonus after your initial $10 deposit.

Why trade on Florida vs. Kentucky in Week 11

Kentucky is a complete football team, and it has been decisively better than Florida this season.

The Wildcats’ last outing against Tennessee looked like a blowout on the scoreboard. In reality, they were in that game until a couple of big negative plays in the fourth quarter stretched the margin.

This is a well-coached group. Will Stein has a strong case for college football coach of the year, and Kentucky is still in line to make the College Football Playoff. Two flat performances in a row would be hard to imagine from this team.

Florida’s season has gone the other way. The Gators have switched quarterbacks and dealt with health concerns at the position. Tramell Jones got the start last week and threw zero touchdowns and two interceptions as a fairly average Oklahoma team won by two scores.

Kentucky is a level above that Oklahoma team. With the Wildcats back home at Kroger Field and coming off a loss, our model expects them to cover.

Week 11 Trade of the Day: Kentucky -3.5 vs. Florida

• Dimers probability: 54%
• Polymarket trading price: 50.5%
• Edge on Polymarket: 3.5%

Our model gives Kentucky a 54% chance of covering the 3.5-point spread. Polymarket is trading it at 50.5%, so we have a 3.5% edge over the market price.

Our projected final score of 28-23 has Kentucky winning by five, which clears the number by 1.5 points. Our models also make the Wildcats 64.5% favorites to win outright.

That makes Kentucky -3.5 our trade of the week.

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