Tight Ends Day: Ranking every tight end's chances to score a touchdown in NFL Week 7

Week 7 lands on National Tight Ends Day and NFL betting will put a greater focus on the most underappreciated skill position in football, from receiving ladders to touchdown props.

Using our NFL Player Projections, We simulated every Week 7 game and pulled each team's top tight end by anytime touchdown probability. With Buffalo, Jacksonville, the Chargers and Washington on bye, and the Bears, Patriots, Cowboys and Eagles playing on TNF and MNF, that's 24 tight ends, ranked from most likely to least likely to find the end zone.

What is National Tight Ends Day?

National Tight Ends Day falls on the fourth Sunday of October. The NFL officially recognizes it, though there are no formal traditions beyond celebrating the position.

The idea started in San Francisco in 2018. After Garrett Celek caught an 11-yard touchdown in Week 2 against the Lions, Kittle, Celek and quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo joked that it must be "National Tight Ends Day."

Kittle kept the bit going every year until the league adopted it, and it's become a "game within the game" when betting on tight ends.

RANKED: Every Tight End's chance to score on  National Tight Ends Day

Below you'll find every team's TE1 and their chance to score a touchdown, straight from our NFL Player Projections Hub.

We broke them up into three tiers based on their probability, and noted which players get a Dimers edge to score via our NFL player props.

Tier 1: 40% or higher

Brock Bowers (LV) 42.5% Bowers has 28 catches for 382 yards and three touchdowns in four games since returning from the injury that cost him Weeks 1 and 2, good for 95.5 yards per game. He's questionable against the Rams with hamstring and calf issues after a limited Wednesday practice, so check his status before Sunday.

George Kittle (SF) 41.3% Mr. Tight End Day himself, George Kittle is tied with Isaiah Likely for the most touchdown catches among tight ends on this week's slate with five, and he's scored in four of his last five games. He posted 5-69-1 against Washington last time out and gets Atlanta this week, possibly as Brock Purdy's top target with Mike Evans listed as questionable.

Tier 2: 25% or higher

Trey McBride (ARI) 38.3% McBride just missed the top tier and leads this group with 49 catches on 65 targets for 361 yards and three touchdowns. His 7.4 yards per catch is low, but that volume gives him a strong weekly floor at the position heading into Denver, and he carries a Dimers betting edge to score.

Sam LaPorta (DET) 32.0% LaPorta has 27 catches for 316 yards and three touchdowns, scoring in three of his last four games. He comes off the bye after a 5-88-1 line at Arizona.

Harold Fannin Jr. (CLE) 30.5% Fannin's three touchdowns on just 19 catches (166 yards) explain why the model rates him this high as he's got a high scoring rate.

Tucker Kraft (GB) 30.1% Kraft has 25 catches for 249 yards but only one touchdown this season. At 30.1% against Detroit, the model rates his scoring chances well above what his one-touchdown output suggests, and he'll face the defense that allows 10.6 targets and 1.2 TDs per game to the position.

Pat Freiermuth (PIT) 27.9% Freiermuth turns a small workload into scores, with four touchdowns on just 21 catches for 180 yards, also carrying a Dimers model edge this week.

Isaiah Likely (NYG) 26.6% Likely leads all tight ends with 383 receiving yards on 39 catches and has five touchdowns. He's the hottest player on the board, with three scores in his last two games, which makes 26.6% the most interesting number in this tier, especially with J.J. McCarthy getting the start at QB in Week 7.

Kyle Pitts (ATL) 26.4% Pitts has three touchdowns in his last two games, including two fourth-quarter scores against Chicago. He has 15 catches for 169 yards on the year after a slow start.

Travis Kelce (KC) 26.2% Kelce has 20 catches for 299 yards and two touchdowns in five games. He's managing an ankle injury that limited him in Wednesday's practice ahead of the trip to Seattle.

Tyler Higbee (LA) 25.2% Higbee has 24 catches for 246 yards and one touchdown. With Davante Adams out with a hamstring injury, he likely steps in as the No. 2 target behind Puka Nacua.

Mark Andrews (BAL) 25.2% Andrews has 23 catches for 181 yards and one touchdown, and his usage is trending down after a 1-4 line on three targets in Week 6. The model still gives him a one-in-four shot against Cincinnati who have allowed 9.8 targets and 92.0 rec yards per game to the position.

Tier 3: 10% or higher

Juwan Johnson (NO) 24.4% Johnson has 25 catches for 248 yards and three touchdowns, but was held without a catch on two targets in Week 6. The Saints face Pittsburgh in Paris on Sunday morning.

Darren Waller (CAR) 24.2% Waller signed a one-year deal with Carolina in August and has 13 catches for 148 yards and two touchdowns in five games. He's dealing with a toe injury and was held catchless in Week 6, so his snap share isn't guaranteed against Tampa Bay.

Mike Gesicki (CIN) 24.0% Gesicki has scored in four of five games despite only 12 catches for 159 yards all season. He's the fourth option in the passing game behind Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Andrei Iosivas, but he keeps finding the end zone.

Tyler Warren (IND) 23.5% Warren has 30 catches for 213 yards and three total touchdowns in five games. He's questionable with a groin injury after missing Week 6 and sitting out Wednesday's practice, and Mo Alie-Cox would take over if he can't go.

T.J. Hockenson (MIN) 23.5% Hockenson has 23 catches for 202 yards and one touchdown, which came back in Week 1. He's been boom-or-bust, going 13-119 in Week 4 and then 1-7 in Week 5 before the bye.

Dalton Schultz (HOU) 22.7% Schultz is still looking for his first touchdown of the season, with 28 catches for 277 yards. Half of those yards came in one 12-140 game against Cincinnati in Week 2.

AJ Barner (SEA) 21.0% Barner has 15 catches for 138 yards and no receiving touchdowns. His only score was a 1-yard rushing touchdown at Arizona in Week 2.

Cade Otton (TB) 19.3% Otton has 19 catches for 186 yards and hasn't scored yet this season. He managed just one catch for four yards against Pittsburgh in Week 6.

Kenyon Sadiq (NYJ) 18.9% Sadiq, the 16th overall pick and the only tight end taken in the first round of the 2026 draft, has 15 catches for 158 yards and one touchdown. Most of that came in a 7-105-1 game at Detroit in Week 3.

Evan Engram (DEN) 18.0% Engram has 12 catches for 134 yards and one touchdown in his first season in Denver, but he hasn't topped four catches in a game.

Greg Dulcich (MIA) 14.1% Dulcich has 13 catches for 127 yards and no touchdowns, and he comes off the Dolphins' bye after a 4-37 game against Cincinnati.

Gunnar Helm (TEN) 12.5% Helm has nine catches for 60 yards and no touchdowns, and he's been held without a catch in each of his last two games. He's still playing a lot of snaps, but the target share isn't there.

Responsible gambling

Probabilities are model outputs, not guarantees. Stats are through Week 6 of the 2026 season, and injury statuses can change before kickoff. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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