Sun vs. Dream prediction: Why Atlanta is favored to win Thursday's WNBA game [9/17/2026]

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Thursday's WNBA game between the Sun and Dream, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Dream a 91.4% chance of defeating the Sun. According to our model, the Sun (+16.5) have a 57.3% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 169.5 points has a 55.2% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Sun +16.5 (+105) / Dream -16.5 (-115)
• Moneyline: Sun +1329, Dream -1438
• Total: Over/Under 169.5 (+100/-104)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Sun +16.5 @ 49¢ via Kalshi
• Moneyline: Sun @ 7¢ via Polymarket
• Total: Over 169.5 @ 50¢ via Polymarket

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Sun +16.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Top player props

Looking for Sun vs. Dream WNBA player props? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Gateway Center Arena.

Aaliyah Edwards is expected to lead the Sun with 19 points, 7 rebounds and 1 assists, while Allisha Gray is projected to have 19 points, 3 rebounds and 3 assists for the Dream.

Shifting focus to the first basket market, our projections highlight Aaliyah Edwards as the most likely player to open the scoring.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Sun player props

Our model's projected player stats for the Sun are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Aaliyah Edwards	19	7	1	1	35
O. Nelson-Ododa	11	7	2	0	27
Nell Angloma	9	4	3	1	23
Saniya Rivers	8	3	4	1	23
C. Leger-Walker	8	3	4	2	23

Dream player props

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Dream:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Allisha Gray	19	3	3	2	32
Rhyne Howard	17	3	4	3	35
Angel Reese	16	12	3	0	42
Jordin Canada	11	3	7	1	33
Naz Hillmon	9	5	2	1	21

Game info & tip-off details

Thursday's action between the Dream and Sun at Gateway Center Arena is scheduled to start at 7:30 PM ET.

• Who: Connecticut Sun vs. Atlanta Dream
• Date: Thursday, September 17, 2026
• Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
• Venue: Gateway Center Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Dream, with a 91.4% win probability, will likely beat the Sun in Thursday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary WNBA prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.