Nashville SC vs. Philadelphia Union prediction, odds, MLS Cup first round picks [10/28/2026]

Nashville and Philadelphia will meet in the MLS Cup first round at Geodis Park on Wednesday, with kickoff at 8:30 PM ET.

Dimers' advanced MLS model projects Nashville as the most likely winner in this Nashville vs. Philadelphia prediction.

This article offers a closer look at Wednesday's match, including best bets and picks.

Nashville SC vs. Philadelphia Union prediction and odds

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Wednesday's MLS matchup between Nashville and Philadelphia, forming part of our MLS predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model suggests a 59.4% chance of Nashville winning, a 19.5% chance for Philadelphia, and a 21.1% chance of a draw. Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 60.1% chance of going over., according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best MLS odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Philadelphia +335, Nashville -122
• Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5 (-156/+150)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet for MLS Cup first round

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Nashville @ -122 via Polymarket
• Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ +150 via BetRivers

According to our MLS best bets, the top play to make on this game is Nashville to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Correct score projections

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 2-1 Nashville win being the most probable:

• Nashville 2-1 Philadelphia (9.9% probability)
• Nashville 1-1 Philadelphia (9.8%)
• Nashville 2-0 Philadelphia (9.2%)

Game info & kickoff details

Wednesday's MLS game between Nashville and Philadelphia in MLS at Geodis Park is scheduled to start at 8:30 PM ET.

• Who: Nashville SC vs. Philadelphia Union
• Date: Wednesday, October 28, 2026
• Time: 8:30 PM ET/5:30 PM PT
• Venue: Geodis Park

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Nashville has a 59.4% win probability on Wednesday, Philadelphia has a 19.5% win probability, and there is a 21.1% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLS prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.