New York City vs. Atlanta United prediction, odds, MLS Cup first round picks [10/28/2026]

MLS Cup action continues on Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET as Atlanta takes on NY City in the first round at Yankee Stadium.

Dimers' advanced MLS model projects NY City as the most likely winner in this NY City vs. Atlanta prediction.

This article offers a closer look at Wednesday's match, including best bets and picks.

New York City vs. Atlanta United prediction and odds

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Wednesday's MLS matchup between NY City and Atlanta, forming part of our MLS predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently suggests a 56.8% chance of NY City winning, a 21.2% chance for Atlanta, and a 22.0% chance of a draw. Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 58.3% chance of going over., according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best MLS odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Atlanta +355, NY City -133
• Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5 (-170/+156)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet for MLS Cup first round

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: NY City @ -133 via Polymarket
• Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ +156 via Polymarket

According to our MLS best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 2.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Correct score projections

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

• NY City 1-1 Atlanta (10.3% probability)
• NY City 2-1 Atlanta (9.9%)
• NY City 1-0 Atlanta (9.3%)

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, meaning the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.

Game info & kickoff details

Wednesday's MLS action between NY City and Atlanta in MLS at Yankee Stadium is scheduled to start at 7:30 PM ET.

• Who: New York City vs. Atlanta United
• Date: Wednesday, October 28, 2026
• Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30 PM PT
• Venue: Yankee Stadium

Conclusion

According to our computer model, NY City has a 56.8% win probability on Wednesday, Atlanta has a 21.2% win probability, and there is a 22.0% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLS prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.