Three MLS players to watch on Saturday, July 25: Better match for Lewandowski?

MLS is back again with a packed Saturday betting slate, and with it the same Dimers soccer predictions that turned in a positve ROI on the World Cup, from pre-match betting value to tournament futures. 

To celebrate that success and the return of international soccer, we've dropped the paywall on all MLS editorial content, bringing readers matchup breakdowns, win probabilities, and value-driven angles for marquee games each week, at no cost to all users.

All season long, Dimers' data-driven algorithms simulate every MLS contest thousands of times, processing 1,000s of inputs across expected-goals metrics, rosters, recent form, and player-level data to predict the precise chance of every possible outcome in a match, as well as long-term outcomes like who will win the MLS Cup.

For this weekend's slate, we're looking at three players to keep an eye on due to either a high profile match or their betting value.

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Three MLS players to watch this weekend [Saturday, July 25]

Robert Lewandowski (Chicago Fire)

Lewandowski's Chicago debut left something to be desired. His debut came with an extra layer of scrutiny as Chicago made a bold roster move around him, parting ways with Hugo Cuypers, who was tied atop the MLS goal-scoring charts to clear the path for the 37-year-old Polish veteran.

This transitional period for the club ahead of Saturday's clash with NYCFC at Yankee Stadium appears to open up some betting value, per the Dimers model.

Chicago sit at just a 30.7% chance to win, and Dimers identifies value on the other side, giving NYCFC a 45.6% chance to win at +145 odds, a notable gap considering Chicago is priced at +160 to win. 

However, it may not be all bad news for Chicago, as Lewandowski is the favorite to score in the match on the books at +105.

Dimers' value on NY City as seen in our Best MLS Bets.

Denis Bouanga (LAFC)

Few players enter a weekend in better position than Bouanga, who leads a top-four MLS Cup contender (9.7% to win MLS Cup per Dimers) against Sporting KC, currently the league's worst club.

LAFC are heavy 77.4% favorites, and the model expects goals to come with ease, projecting a 72.8% chance of the match going over 2.5 total goals.

Three of Dimers' most likely correct scorelines are lopsided clean sheets of 2-0, 3-0, and 5-0, all scenarios that put Bouanga (-190 anytime goal, +280 for 2+ goals) in prime position to pad his eight-goal season tally against a struggling Sporting KC backline.

Correct score predictions from LAFC vs. Sporting KC.

Timo Werner (San Jose Earthquakes)

San Jose enter the weekend as a darkhorse MLS Cup contender, holding a 2.4% chance to win it all per Dimers, and they're set up as 59% favorites over the LA Galaxy, with a 2-1 result projected as the single most likely scoreline at 9.4%.

Werner was red-hot entering the World Cup break, scoring all four of his goals across the three matches immediately before the pause, and though he was kept off the scoresheet in the first match back, he registered two shots on target in a 4-0 loss to Orlando.

Our model flags this matchup as the best bet of the weekend, giving San Jose a 5.5% edge at -115 odds to win, a strong signal for Werner and company to return to their pre-break form.

Dimers' value on San Jose from our Best MLS Bets.

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