Minnesota United vs. Sporting Kansas City prediction, odds, MLS Cup first round picks [10/28/2026]

MLS Cup action continues on Wednesday at 8:30 PM ET as Sporting KC locks horns with Minnesota in the first round at Allianz Field.

Dimers' proven MLS model projects Minnesota as the most likely winner in this Minnesota vs. Sporting KC prediction.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Wednesday's match, including best bets and picks.

Minnesota United vs. Sporting Kansas City prediction and odds

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Wednesday's MLS matchup between Minnesota and Sporting KC, forming part of our MLS predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently suggests a 66.9% chance of Minnesota winning, a 16.0% chance for Sporting KC, and a 17.1% chance of a draw. Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 75.1% chance of going over., according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best MLS odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Sporting KC +567, Minnesota -212
• Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5 (-270/+270)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet for MLS Cup first round

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Sporting KC @ +567 via Polymarket
• Total Goals: Over 2.5 @ -270 via Novig

According to our MLS best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 2.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Correct score projections

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 2-1 Minnesota win being the most probable:

• Minnesota 2-1 Sporting KC (9% probability)
• Minnesota 3-1 Sporting KC (7.8%)
• Minnesota 2-0 Sporting KC (7.3%)

Game info & kickoff details

Wednesday's MLS game between Minnesota and Sporting KC in MLS at Allianz Field is scheduled to start at 8:30 PM ET.

• Who: Minnesota United vs. Sporting Kansas City
• Date: Wednesday, October 28, 2026
• Time: 8:30 PM ET/5:30 PM PT
• Venue: Allianz Field

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Minnesota has a 66.9% win probability on Wednesday, Sporting KC has a 16.0% win probability, and there is a 17.1% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLS prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.