New England Revolution vs. NY Red Bulls prediction, odds, MLS Cup first round picks [10/28/2026]

MLS Cup action continues on Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET as NY Red Bulls squares off with New England in the first round at Gillette Stadium.

Dimers' proven MLS model projects New England as the most likely winner in this New England vs. NY Red Bulls prediction.

This article offers a closer look at Wednesday's match, including best bets and picks.

New England Revolution vs. NY Red Bulls prediction and odds

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Wednesday's MLS game between New England and NY Red Bulls, forming part of our MLS predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently suggests a 53.4% chance of New England winning, a 25.1% chance for NY Red Bulls, and a 21.5% chance of a draw. Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 65.4% chance of going over., according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best MLS odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: NY Red Bulls +257, New England +100
• Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5 (-233/+223)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet for MLS Cup first round

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: New England @ +100 via Polymarket
• Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ +223 via Polymarket

According to our MLS best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 2.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Correct score projections

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 2-1 New England win being the most probable:

• New England 2-1 NY Red Bulls (9.5% probability)
• New England 1-1 NY Red Bulls (9.4%)
• New England 2-0 NY Red Bulls (7.1%)

Game info & kickoff details

Wednesday's MLS matchup between New England and NY Red Bulls in MLS at Gillette Stadium is scheduled to commence at 7:30 PM ET.

• Who: New England Revolution vs. NY Red Bulls
• Date: Wednesday, October 28, 2026
• Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30 PM PT
• Venue: Gillette Stadium

Conclusion

According to our computer model, New England has a 53.4% win probability on Wednesday, NY Red Bulls have a 25.1% win probability, and there is a 21.5% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLS prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.