Liberty vs. Sparks prediction: New York favored to win Tuesday's WNBA matchup [7/28/2026]
Get New York Liberty vs Los Angeles Sparks predictions for WNBA Tuesday.
The Los Angeles Sparks will take on the New York Liberty in WNBA action at Crypto.com Arena on Tuesday, commencing at 10:00 PM ET.
Dimers' proven WNBA model projects the Liberty as the most likely winner in this Liberty vs. Sparks prediction game.
The Sparks, who have stars such as Nneka Ogwumike, Dearica Hamby and Rae Burrell, will face off against the Liberty, featuring Sabrina Ionescu, Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Tuesday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Liberty vs. Sparks prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Liberty a 67.1% chance of defeating the Sparks.
According to our model, the Sparks (+4.5) have a 51.1% chance of covering the spread, while the 182.5-point over/under has a 69.4% chance of staying under,.
Liberty vs. Sparks odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Liberty | Sparks |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -4.5 (-113) | +4.5 (+108) |
| Moneyline | -178 | +176 |
| Total | o182.5 (-104) | u182.5 (+100) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Liberty vs. Sparks picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sparks +4.5 | +108 |
| Moneyline | Liberty | -178 |
| Total | Under 182.5 | +100 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 182.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Liberty vs. Sparks player props
Betting on New York vs. Los Angeles WNBA prop bets? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Crypto.com Arena.
Sabrina Ionescu is expected to lead the Liberty with 22 points, 5 rebounds and 6 assists, while Nneka Ogwumike is projected to have 18 points, 8 rebounds and 3 assists for the Sparks.
Looking at the opening tip, the numbers point to Breanna Stewart striking first with a 15.2% probability.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Liberty prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Liberty are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sabrina Ionescu | 22 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 44 |
| Breanna Stewart | 20 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 45 |
| Jonquel Jones | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 36 |
| Pauline Astier | 11 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 24 |
| Marine Johannes | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
Sparks prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Sparks:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nneka Ogwumike | 18 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 36 |
| Dearica Hamby | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 34 |
| Rae Burrell | 15 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 27 |
| Ariel Atkins | 14 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 31 |
| Cameron Brink | 12 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 32 |
Liberty vs. Sparks game-day updates and essential details
Tuesday's game between the Sparks and Liberty at Crypto.com Arena is scheduled to commence at 10:00 PM ET.
- Who: New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks
- Date: Tuesday, July 28, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
- Venue: Crypto.com Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Liberty, with a 67.1% win probability, will likely beat the Sparks in Tuesday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Continue reading with Dimers Pro
Join now to unlock this article and get full access to our predictions and betting tools. Cancel anytime.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
