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Read Article WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Tuesday, July 28, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 7/28.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Tuesday, July 28, 2026—are live with the Aces' A'ja Wilson projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections make use of detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.
Wilson, Marina Mabrey and Breanna Stewart lead Tuesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also showcase tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
WNBA first basket predictions tonight (July 28, 2026)
| Player (Team) | FB Probability |
|---|---|
| A'ja Wilson (Aces) | 15.7% |
| Marina Mabrey (Tempo) | 15.4% |
| Breanna Stewart (Liberty) | 15.2% |
| Kelsey Mitchell (Fever) | 14.4% |
| Isabelle Harrison (Tempo) | 14.3% |
| Nneka Ogwumike (Sparks) | 13.5% |
| Dominique Malonga (Storm) | 13.2% |
| Olivia Nelson-Ododa (Sun) | 13.0% |
| Shakira Austin (Mystics) | 13.0% |
| Leila Lacan (Sun) | 12.9% |
| Sabrina Ionescu (Liberty) | 12.9% |
| Kiki Iriafen (Mystics) | 12.6% |
| Caitlin Clark (Fever) | 12.5% |
| Megan Gustafson (Fire) | 12.2% |
| Dearica Hamby (Sparks) | 12.2% |
| Napheesa Collier (Lynx) | 11.9% |
| Aliyah Boston (Fever) | 11.6% |
| Jackie Young (Aces) | 11.5% |
| NaLyssa Smith (Aces) | 11.1% |
| Kayla McBride (Lynx) | 11.0% |
| Flau'jae Johnson (Storm) | 11.0% |
| Natisha Hiedeman (Storm) | 10.9% |
| Olivia Miles (Lynx) | 10.5% |
| Carla Leite (Fire) | 10.4% |
| Sonia Citron (Mystics) | 10.4% |
| Jonquel Jones (Liberty) | 10.2% |
| Frieda Buhner (Fire) | 10.1% |
| Rae Burrell (Sparks) | 9.7% |
| Courtney Williams (Lynx) | 9.0% |
| Laura Juskaite (Tempo) | 8.7% |
| Kennedy Burke (Sun) | 8.6% |
| Bridget Carleton (Fire) | 8.6% |
| Emily Engstler (Fire) | 8.6% |
| Diamond Miller (Sun) | 8.4% |
| Pauline Astier (Liberty) | 8.0% |
| Awa Fam (Storm) | 7.9% |
| Georgia Amoore (Mystics) | 7.6% |
| Natasha Howard (Lynx) | 7.6% |
| Erica Wheeler (Sparks) | 7.4% |
| Ariel Atkins (Sparks) | 7.2% |
| Charlisse Leger-Walker (Sun) | 7.1% |
| Jade Melbourne (Storm) | 7.0% |
| Chelsea Gray (Aces) | 6.8% |
| Maria Conde (Tempo) | 6.5% |
| Michaela Onyenwere (Mystics) | 6.4% |
| Lexie Hull (Fever) | 6.4% |
| Julie Allemand (Tempo) | 5.1% |
| Sophie Cunningham (Fever) | 5.1% |
| Jewell Loyd (Aces) | 4.9% |
| Rebecca Allen (Liberty) | 3.7% |
WNBA first basket picks today (July 28, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabelle Harrison | Tempo | 3.7% | +850 | 14.3% |
| Kayla McBride | Lynx | 3.3% | +1200 | 11.0% |
| Sabrina Ionescu | Liberty | 2.3% | +850 | 12.9% |
| Marina Mabrey | Tempo | 2.1% | +650 | 15.4% |
| Georgia Amoore | Mystics | 2.1% | +1700 | 7.6% |
| Rae Burrell | Sparks | 2.0% | +1200 | 9.7% |
| NaLyssa Smith | Aces | 2.0% | +1000 | 11.1% |
| Megan Gustafson | Fire | 1.7% | +850 | 12.2% |
| Ariel Atkins | Sparks | 1.4% | +1600 | 7.2% |
| Sonia Citron | Mystics | 1.3% | +1000 | 10.4% |
| Leila Lacan | Sun | 1.1% | +750 | 12.9% |
| Dearica Hamby | Sparks | 1.1% | +800 | 12.2% |
| Kelsey Mitchell | Fever | 1.1% | +650 | 14.4% |
| Emily Engstler | Fire | 0.9% | +1200 | 8.6% |
| Natisha Hiedeman | Storm | 0.9% | +900 | 10.9% |
| Caitlin Clark | Fever | 0.8% | +750 | 12.5% |
| Courtney Williams | Lynx | 0.7% | +1100 | 9.0% |
| Laura Juskaite | Tempo | 0.4% | +1100 | 8.7% |
| Kiki Iriafen | Mystics | 0.1% | +700 | 12.6% |
| Nneka Ogwumike | Sparks | 0.1% | +650 | 13.5% |
| Lexie Hull | Fever | 0.1% | +1500 | 6.4% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of WNBA prop bets for 7/28.
Conclusion: Betting on today's WNBA first basket
For Tuesday, July 28, 2026, A'ja Wilson, Marina Mabrey and Breanna Stewart lead our first basket projections, while Isabelle Harrison shapes as the strongest value play at +850. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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