WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Tuesday, July 28, 2026
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 7/28.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Tuesday, July 28, 2026—are live with the Aces' A'ja Wilson projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections are based on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.
Wilson, Marina Mabrey and Breanna Stewart lead Tuesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
WNBA first basket predictions tonight (July 28, 2026)
| Player (Team) | FB Probability |
|---|---|
| A'ja Wilson (Aces) | 15.7% |
| Marina Mabrey (Tempo) | 15.4% |
| Breanna Stewart (Liberty) | 15.2% |
| Kelsey Mitchell (Fever) | 14.4% |
| Isabelle Harrison (Tempo) | 14.3% |
| Megan Gustafson (Fire) | 13.7% |
| Nneka Ogwumike (Sparks) | 13.5% |
| Dominique Malonga (Storm) | 13.2% |
| Olivia Nelson-Ododa (Sun) | 13.0% |
| Shakira Austin (Mystics) | 13.0% |
| Leila Lacan (Sun) | 12.9% |
| Sabrina Ionescu (Liberty) | 12.9% |
| Kiki Iriafen (Mystics) | 12.6% |
| Caitlin Clark (Fever) | 12.5% |
| Dearica Hamby (Sparks) | 12.2% |
| Napheesa Collier (Lynx) | 11.9% |
| Carla Leite (Fire) | 11.7% |
| Aliyah Boston (Fever) | 11.6% |
| Jackie Young (Aces) | 11.5% |
| NaLyssa Smith (Aces) | 11.1% |
| Kayla McBride (Lynx) | 11.0% |
| Flau'jae Johnson (Storm) | 11.0% |
| Natisha Hiedeman (Storm) | 10.9% |
| Olivia Miles (Lynx) | 10.5% |
| Sonia Citron (Mystics) | 10.4% |
| Jonquel Jones (Liberty) | 10.2% |
| Rae Burrell (Sparks) | 9.7% |
| Bridget Carleton (Fire) | 9.7% |
| Emily Engstler (Fire) | 9.7% |
| Courtney Williams (Lynx) | 9.0% |
| Laura Juskaite (Tempo) | 8.7% |
| Kennedy Burke (Sun) | 8.6% |
| Diamond Miller (Sun) | 8.4% |
| Pauline Astier (Liberty) | 8.0% |
| Awa Fam (Storm) | 7.9% |
| Georgia Amoore (Mystics) | 7.6% |
| Natasha Howard (Lynx) | 7.6% |
| Erica Wheeler (Sparks) | 7.4% |
| Ariel Atkins (Sparks) | 7.2% |
| Charlisse Leger-Walker (Sun) | 7.1% |
| Jade Melbourne (Storm) | 7.0% |
| Chelsea Gray (Aces) | 6.8% |
| Maria Conde (Tempo) | 6.5% |
| Michaela Onyenwere (Mystics) | 6.4% |
| Lexie Hull (Fever) | 6.4% |
| Nyadiew Puoch (Fire) | 5.3% |
| Julie Allemand (Tempo) | 5.1% |
| Sophie Cunningham (Fever) | 5.1% |
| Jewell Loyd (Aces) | 4.9% |
| Rebecca Allen (Liberty) | 3.7% |
WNBA first basket picks today (July 28, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Megan Gustafson | Fire | 3.7% | +900 | 13.7% |
| Isabelle Harrison | Tempo | 3.5% | +830 | 14.3% |
| Kayla McBride | Lynx | 3.3% | +1200 | 11.0% |
| Sabrina Ionescu | Liberty | 2.3% | +850 | 12.9% |
| Emily Engstler | Fire | 2.0% | +1200 | 9.7% |
| Kelsey Mitchell | Fever | 1.9% | +700 | 14.4% |
| Ariel Atkins | Sparks | 1.7% | +1700 | 7.2% |
| Rae Burrell | Sparks | 1.4% | +1100 | 9.7% |
| Georgia Amoore | Mystics | 1.4% | +1500 | 7.6% |
| Sonia Citron | Mystics | 1.3% | +1000 | 10.4% |
| Leila Lacan | Sun | 1.1% | +750 | 12.9% |
| Dearica Hamby | Sparks | 1.1% | +800 | 12.2% |
| Courtney Williams | Lynx | 1.0% | +1140 | 9.0% |
| Caitlin Clark | Fever | 0.9% | +760 | 12.5% |
| Natisha Hiedeman | Storm | 0.9% | +900 | 10.9% |
| Bridget Carleton | Fire | 0.6% | +1000 | 9.7% |
| Laura Juskaite | Tempo | 0.4% | +1100 | 8.7% |
| Kiki Iriafen | Mystics | 0.1% | +700 | 12.6% |
| Nneka Ogwumike | Sparks | 0.1% | +650 | 13.5% |
| Lexie Hull | Fever | 0.1% | +1500 | 6.4% |
| Marina Mabrey | Tempo | 0.0% | +550 | 15.4% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 7/28.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Tuesday, July 28, 2026, A'ja Wilson, Marina Mabrey and Breanna Stewart lead our first basket projections, while Megan Gustafson shapes as the strongest value play at +900. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
