Dream vs. Liberty prediction favors Atlanta to win Wednesday's WNBA game [9/23/2026]

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Wednesday's WNBA game between the Dream and Liberty, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Dream a 70.3% chance of defeating the Liberty. According to our model, the Dream (-4.5) have a 53.2% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 173.5 points has a 56.3% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Dream -4.5 (-104) / Liberty +4.5 (+100)
• Moneyline: Dream -186, Liberty +178
• Total: Over/Under 173.5 (-108/+104)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Dream -4.5 @ 51¢ via Polymarket
• Moneyline: Dream @ 65¢ via Polymarket
• Total: Over 173.5 @ 52¢ via Polymarket

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Dream to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Top player props

Looking for Atlanta vs. New York WNBA player props? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Barclays Center.

Allisha Gray is expected to lead the Dream with 17 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists, while Jonquel Jones is projected to have 15 points, 9 rebounds and 2 assists for the Liberty.

When evaluating the first basket market, Jonquel Jones is our top projected player to score first, backed by a 14.3% probability.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Dream player props

Our model's projected player stats for the Dream are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Allisha Gray	17	5	3	2	32
Angel Reese	17	12	3	0	43
Rhyne Howard	16	3	3	3	34
Jordin Canada	11	3	8	1	33
DeWanna Bonner	8	5	2	1	21

Liberty player props

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Liberty:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Jonquel Jones	15	9	2	2	36
Sabrina Ionescu	13	4	5	2	28
Pauline Astier	10	3	4	1	23
Marine Johannes	9	2	2	2	18
Leonie Fiebich	8	3	2	1	19

Game info & tip-off details

Wednesday's game between the Liberty and Dream at Barclays Center is scheduled to begin at 8:00 PM ET.

• Who: Atlanta Dream vs. New York Liberty
• Date: Wednesday, September 23, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
• Venue: Barclays Center

Conclusion

We predict the Dream, with a 70.3% win probability, will likely beat the Liberty in Wednesday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary WNBA prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.