Sep 24, 2026
WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Thursday, September 24, 2026
Read Article Tempo vs. Sun prediction: Why Connecticut is favored to win Thursday's WNBA matchup [9/24/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Dimers' simulation model projects a 53.7% win probability for the Sun at Mohegan Sun Arena.
The Connecticut Sun and Toronto Tempo will meet in the WNBA Playoffs at Mohegan Sun Arena on Thursday, starting at 7:00 PM ET.
Dimers' advanced WNBA model gives the Sun a slight edge with a 53.7% win probability over the Tempo.
The Sun, with stars such as Aaliyah Edwards, Diamond Miller and Leila Lacan, will face off against the Tempo, who feature Laura Juskaite, Isabelle Harrison and Kiki Rice.
This article offers a complete Tempo vs. Sun prediction, including best bets and player prop picks.
Tempo vs. Sun prediction and odds
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Thursday's WNBA game between the Tempo and Sun, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Sun a 53.7% chance of beating the Tempo. According to our model, the Tempo (+1.5) have a 51.5% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 169.5 points has a 53.2% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Spread: Tempo +1.5 (+108) / Sun -1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Tempo +122, Sun -125
- Total: Over/Under 169.5 (+102/-108)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Spread: Tempo +1.5 @ 48¢ via Polymarket
- Moneyline: Tempo @ 45¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 169.5 @ 50¢ via Novig
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 169.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Top player props
WNBA prop bets are an exciting way to wager on the Toronto vs. Connecticut matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mohegan Sun Arena.
Laura Juskaite is expected to lead the Tempo with 17 points, 5 rebounds and 2 assists, while Aaliyah Edwards is projected to have 13 points, 6 rebounds and 2 assists for the Sun.
Shifting focus to the first basket market, our projections highlight Aaliyah Edwards as the most likely player to open the scoring.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Tempo player props
Our model's projected player stats for the Tempo are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laura Juskaite | 17 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 30 |
| I. Harrison | 12 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 29 |
| Kiki Rice | 11 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 27 |
| Kia Nurse | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| Maria Conde | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15 |
Sun player props
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Sun:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaliyah Edwards | 13 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 28 |
| Diamond Miller | 12 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 |
| Leila Lacan | 12 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 29 |
| C. Leger-Walker | 9 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 25 |
| Raegan Beers | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 21 |
Game info & tip-off details
Thursday's matchup between the Sun and Tempo at Mohegan Sun Arena is scheduled to commence at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun
- Date: Thursday, September 24, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Mohegan Sun Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Sun, with a 53.7% win probability, will likely beat the Tempo in Thursday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary WNBA prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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