Aces vs. Mercury prediction: Why Las Vegas is favored to win Thursday's WNBA matchup [9/24/2026]

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Thursday's WNBA matchup between the Aces and Mercury, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Aces a 79.6% chance of beating the Mercury. According to our model, the Mercury (+9.5) have a 53.1% chance of covering the spread, while the 175.5-point over/under has a 50.2% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Aces -9.5 (-117) / Mercury +9.5 (+113)
• Moneyline: Aces -426, Mercury +400
• Total: Over/Under 175.5 (-107/+104)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Mercury +9.5 @ 47¢ via Polymarket
• Moneyline: Mercury @ 20¢ via Polymarket
• Total: Under 175.5 @ 49¢ via Polymarket

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mercury +9.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Top player props

WNBA player props are an enjoyable way to wager on the Aces vs. Mercury game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.

A'ja Wilson is expected to lead the Aces with 25 points, 9 rebounds and 3 assists, while Kahleah Copper is projected to have 19 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assists for the Mercury.

When evaluating the first basket market, A'ja Wilson is our top projected player to score first, backed by a 16.7% probability.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Aces player props

Our model's projected player stats for the Aces are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
A'ja Wilson	25	9	3	1	50
Jackie Young	19	4	7	2	40
Chelsea Gray	11	3	6	2	30
S. Talbot	7	4	1	1	17
Cheyenne Parker	7	4	1	1	17

Mercury player props

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mercury:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kahleah Copper	19	4	2	2	31
Alyssa Thomas	12	8	8	0	39
Natasha Mack	9	8	1	0	25
Alexa Held	8	2	2	2	17
Noemie Brochant	7	3	2	1	18

Game info & tip-off details

Thursday's game between the Mercury and Aces at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to commence at 10:00 PM ET.

• Who: Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury
• Date: Thursday, September 24, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
• Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center

Conclusion

We predict the Aces, with a 79.6% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury in Thursday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary WNBA prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.