WNBA Championship futures on Polymarket: Analyzing Lynx, Aces chances to win title

The WNBA is on a brief pause for the All-Star Break but that doesn't slow down the trading on prediction markets like Polymarket, and for those looking to find an edge, our WNBA futures show a clear advantage when trading on the WNBA on Polymarket compared to the sportsbooks.

Polymarket is a peer-to-peer exchange where users trade event contracts tied to outcomes in sports, politics, culture and more.

Rather than a price set by a sportsbook, the public sets the price on Polymarket, and in the case of the WNBA Championship, opens up trading value.

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Why trade on the WNBA Championship on Polymarket

We analyzed the best betting value in the WNBA futures market, but one thing that stands out is the price on the favorites to win the WNBA Championship.

At the top of the board is the Minnesota Lynx, the consensus favorite by Dimers, the public on Polymarket, and the sportsbooks. While all three have Minnesota priced as a favorite, all three disagree on the likelihood of the Lynx winning and that creates a trading opportunity.

Behind rookie Olivia Miles, standout Kayla McBride and newly returned superstar Napheesa Collier, Dimers models say the Lynx are a 26.5% favorite to win the WNBA Championship.

On Polymarket, they're trading at 42% to win the title. That's not a Dimers value, but compared to the sportsbooks where the Lynx are pushing a 50% implied probability and it's a relative value.

That's the difference between about +135 and +100 in sportsbooks odds, and you wouldn't take the same bet at +100 if you could get at +135, right?

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Value beyond the favorite

Another case is the Las Vegas Aces, Dimers' second-most likely championship winner at 15.6%, and aligned with the Polymarket price of 16%.

But on the sportsbooks, the Aces are priced around +380, over a 20% implied probability. Same situation as the Lynx, but in this case, Dimers and the public on Polymarket are in agreement.

A'ja Wilson and the Aces are reigning champs, a bet we identified last year, found with the same WNBA futures predictions used in this article.

Disclaimer

Polymarket is a prediction market platform, not a sportsbook. Users trade positions on event outcomes using real funds. Must be 18+ and eligible under applicable law. Trading involves risk. Bonus subject to Polymarket's current terms and conditions. Offer valid for new accounts only. Dimers.com may receive compensation through affiliate partnerships.