Liberty vs. Sparks prediction: New York favored to win Tuesday's WNBA matchup [7/28/2026]
Get New York Liberty vs Los Angeles Sparks predictions for WNBA Tuesday.
The Los Angeles Sparks will take on the New York Liberty in WNBA action at Crypto.com Arena on Tuesday, starting at 10:00 PM ET.
Dimers' advanced WNBA model projects the Liberty as the most likely winner in this Liberty vs. Sparks prediction game.
The Sparks, who have the likes of Nneka Ogwumike, Dearica Hamby and Rae Burrell, are set to take on the Liberty, who feature Sabrina Ionescu, Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones.
This article offers a closer look at Tuesday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Liberty vs. Sparks prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Liberty a 65.8% chance of beating the Sparks.
According to our model, the Sparks (+4.5) have a 50.4% chance of covering the spread, while the 183.5-point over/under has a 68.0% chance of staying under,.
Liberty vs. Sparks odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Liberty | Sparks |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -4.5 (-115) | +4.5 (+100) |
| Moneyline | -190 | +165 |
| Total | o183.5 (-110) | u183.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Liberty vs. Sparks picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sparks +4.5 | +100 |
| Moneyline | Liberty | fanatics-190 |
| Total | Under 183.5 | hard_rock-110 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 183.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Liberty vs. Sparks player props
WNBA prop bets are a popular way to wager on the Liberty vs. Sparks game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Crypto.com Arena.
Sabrina Ionescu is expected to lead the Liberty with 22 points, 5 rebounds and 6 assists, while Nneka Ogwumike is projected to have 18 points, 8 rebounds and 3 assists for the Sparks.
For early game action, the data identifies Breanna Stewart as the most probable player to secure the first basket.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Liberty prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Liberty are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sabrina Ionescu | 22 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 44 |
| Breanna Stewart | 20 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 45 |
| Jonquel Jones | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 36 |
| Pauline Astier | 11 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 24 |
| Marine Johannes | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
Sparks prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Sparks:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nneka Ogwumike | 18 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 36 |
| Dearica Hamby | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 34 |
| Rae Burrell | 15 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 27 |
| Ariel Atkins | 14 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 31 |
| Erica Wheeler | 11 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 26 |
Liberty vs. Sparks game-day updates and essential details
Tuesday's action between the Sparks and Liberty at Crypto.com Arena is scheduled to start at 10:00 PM ET.
- Who: New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks
- Date: Tuesday, July 28, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
- Venue: Crypto.com Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Liberty, with a 65.8% win probability, will likely beat the Sparks in Tuesday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
