Packers vs. Patriots prediction favors New England to win in NFL Week 9 [2026]

Since our Packers-Patriots predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Packers and Patriots, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Patriots a 61.0% chance of beating the Packers in Week 9 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Patriots winning 23-20.

Key factors favoring the Patriots:

• Patriots team rating
• Patriots offense
• Patriots home-field advantage

According to our model, the Packers (+3.5) have a 54.7% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 44.5 points has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 9 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Packers +3.5 (-111) / Patriots -3.5 (+108)
• Moneyline: Packers +163, Patriots -167
• Total: Over/Under 44.5 (-104/+104)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Packers +3.5 @ 53¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Packers @ 38¢ via Novig
• Total: Under 44.5 @ 49¢ via Polymarket

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Packers +3.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Packers vs. Patriots TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Packers vs. Patriots?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, Rhamondre Stevenson is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Packers vs. Patriots.

Our projections give Stevenson a 46.5% chance of getting in for six at Gillette Stadium, while the running back is an 11.3% chance of registering the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Green Bay Packers

• Josh Jacobs (RB): 45.1% probability
• Christian Watson (WR): 36.4%
• Matthew Golden (WR): 30.0%
• Tucker Kraft (TE): 23.9%
• Savion Williams (WR): 13.4%

New England Patriots

• Rhamondre Stevenson (RB): 46.5% prob.
• DeMario Douglas (WR): 24.2%
• Hunter Henry (TE): 23.3%
• Drake Maye (QB): 22.4%
• Corey Kiner (RB): 21.7%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Green Bay Packers

• Josh Jacobs (RB): 11.7% prob.
• Christian Watson (WR): 8.8%
• Matthew Golden (WR): 6.9%
• Tucker Kraft (TE): 5.3%
• Savion Williams (WR): 2.8%

New England Patriots

• Rhamondre Stevenson (RB): 11.3% prob.
• DeMario Douglas (WR): 5.0%
• Hunter Henry (TE): 4.8%
• Drake Maye (QB): 4.6%
• Corey Kiner (RB): 4.4%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Packers and Patriots. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 9 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Packers' Jordan Love is projected to have a big game with 273 passing yards. The Patriots' Drake Maye is expected to throw for 236 yards.

Packers rushing

• Josh Jacobs: 52 yds
• MarShawn Lloyd: 12 yds
• Jordan Love: 8 yds

Patriots rushing

• Rhamondre Stevenson: 59 yds
• Corey Kiner: 30 yds
• Drake Maye: 27 yds

Packers receiving

• Matthew Golden: 72 yds
• Christian Watson: 71 yds
• Tucker Kraft: 46 yds
• Josh Jacobs: 25 yds
• Savion Williams: 25 yds

Patriots receiving

• DeMario Douglas: 46 yds
• Mack Hollins: 39 yds
• Hunter Henry: 39 yds
• Efton Chism: 31 yds
• Eli Raridon: 29 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 9 matchup between the Patriots and Packers at Gillette Stadium is scheduled to begin at 4:25 PM ET.

• Who: Green Bay Packers vs. New England Patriots
• Date: Sunday, November 8, 2026
• Time: 4:25 PM ET/1:25 PM PT
• Venue: Gillette Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Patriots, with a 61.0% win probability, will likely beat the Packers in Week 9 of the NFL season.

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This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.