Texans vs. Chargers prediction favors Houston to win in NFL Week 9 [2026]

Since our Texans-Chargers predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's NFL game between the Texans and Chargers, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Texans a 70.7% chance of beating the Chargers in Week 9 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Texans winning 23-17.

Key factors favoring the Texans:

• Chargers QB situation
• Chargers offense
• Texans team rating

According to our model, the Texans (-5.5) have a 52.2% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 40.5 points has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 9 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Texans -5.5 (+104) / Chargers +5.5 (-106)
• Moneyline: Texans -212, Chargers +208
• Total: Over/Under 40.5 (+100/+100)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Texans -5.5 @ 49¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Texans @ 68¢ via Novig
• Total: Under 40.5 @ 50¢ via Novig

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Texans -5.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Texans vs. Chargers TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Texans vs. Chargers?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, Woody Marks is most likely to score an anytime TD in Texans vs. Chargers.

Our projections give Marks a 47.0% chance of scoring a TD at SoFi Stadium, while the running back is a 12.2% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Houston Texans

• Woody Marks (RB): 47.0% probability
• Nico Collins (WR): 39.4%
• Emari Demercado (RB): 23.4%
• Dalton Schultz (TE): 20.3%
• Marvin Harrison (WR): 18.8%

Los Angeles Chargers

• Omarion Hampton (RB): 30.3% prob.
• Ladd McConkey (WR): 24.0%
• Kimani Vidal (RB): 21.6%
• Quentin Johnston (WR): 17.1%
• Keaton Mitchell (RB): 14.5%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Houston Texans

• Woody Marks (RB): 12.2% prob.
• Nico Collins (WR): 9.6%
• Emari Demercado (RB): 5.1%
• Dalton Schultz (TE): 4.4%
• Marvin Harrison (WR): 4.0%

Los Angeles Chargers

• Omarion Hampton (RB): 7.7% prob.
• Ladd McConkey (WR): 5.8%
• Kimani Vidal (RB): 5.2%
• Quentin Johnston (WR): 4.0%
• Keaton Mitchell (RB): 3.3%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Texans and Chargers. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 9 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Texans' C.J. Stroud is projected for 251 passing yards. The Chargers' Justin Herbert is expected to throw for 209 yards.

Texans rushing

• Woody Marks: 67 yds
• Emari Demercado: 29 yds
• C.J. Stroud: 11 yds

Chargers rushing

• Omarion Hampton: 41 yds
• Justin Herbert: 25 yds
• Kimani Vidal: 22 yds

Texans receiving

• Nico Collins: 72 yds
• Dalton Schultz: 39 yds
• Marvin Harrison: 31 yds
• Xavier Hutchinson: 29 yds
• Kayshon Boutte: 22 yds

Chargers receiving

• Ladd McConkey: 57 yds
• Quentin Johnston: 36 yds
• Tre' Harris: 35 yds
• Oronde Gadsden: 21 yds
• Charlie Kolar: 20 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 9 game between the Chargers and Texans at SoFi Stadium is scheduled to start at 4:05 PM ET.

• Who: Houston Texans vs. Los Angeles Chargers
• Date: Sunday, November 8, 2026
• Time: 4:05 PM ET/1:05 PM PT
• Venue: SoFi Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Texans, with a 70.7% win probability, will likely beat the Chargers in Week 9 of the NFL season.

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This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.