NFL picks straight up: Week 4, 2026

At Dimers, our Week 4 NFL picks are grounded in data-driven insight, with straight-up picks for all 16 games informed by our latest NFL predictions.

Gain the edge in your NFL pick 'em contests by following our data-driven NFL Week 4 picks straight up, powered by thousands of game simulations.

Week 4 of the NFL season begins with the Pittsburgh Steelers facing the Cleveland Browns on Thursday night and wraps up with the Atlanta Falcons taking on the New Orleans Saints on Monday night.

NFL picks this week straight up: Week 4, 2026

Listed below are our Week 4 NFL picks highlighting how likely each team is to win their game this week.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns

The Steelers kick off Week 4 against the Browns at Huntington Bank Field on Thursday night. According to our predictive analytics model, the Steelers have a 60% chance of winning, while the Browns have a 40% chance.

For Week 4's opening game, our model highlights NFL player projections, with Jaylen Warren (RB) the most likely player from the Steelers to score the first TD at 10.5%, while Harold Fannin (TE) is the top candidate from the Browns at 11.0%.

Check out our full Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns prediction ahead of this week's matchup at Huntington Bank Field, set for Thursday, October 1 at 8:15pm. All times mentioned in this article are in Eastern Standard Time (EST).

Indianapolis Colts vs. Washington Commanders

For this week's game between the Colts and the Commanders, Indianapolis is more likely to win. Our prediction model gives the Colts a 63% chance of winning. On the other hand, there is a 37% chance that the Commanders will pull off an upset win.

Explore the latest data in this week's Indianapolis Colts vs. Washington Commanders prediction before kickoff in Washingtonon Sunday at 9:30am.

As the season heats up, track the top teams with Dimers' updated NFL futures, highlighting top Super Bowl contenders.

Arizona Cardinals vs. New York Giants

We are picking the Cardinals to win their game against the Giants this week, with our famous NFL model projecting a 51% win probability for the road team. The Giants have a 49% chance of winning at MetLife Stadium.

For betting purposes, the Giants are listed as +1 underdogs, with the Cardinals' moneyline at -110.

Find the complete Arizona Cardinals vs. New York Giants prediction for a closer look at Sunday's 1:00pm game.

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills

According to our predictive analytics model, the Bills are the team to beat in this game, with their win probability at 71%. The Patriots, on the other hand, have a 29% chance of winning.

Review the edges and numbers in our New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills prediction for this Sunday 1:00pm clash at Highmark Stadium.

New York Jets vs. Chicago Bears

The Bears have a 61% chance of winning on Sunday afternoon, compared to the Jets' 39% chance of victory. This makes the Chicago Bears our pick to win at Soldier Field.

See the numbers behind this matchup in the full New York Jets vs. Chicago Bears prediction scheduled for Sunday at 1:00pm at Soldier Field.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Houston Texans

The Texans are favored to win this one, with our model giving them a 57% chance, while the Cowboys enter the weekend with a 43% chance of locking in a win at Reliant Stadium.

When it comes to betting on this game, the Cowboys' moneyline odds are set at +120, with the home team Texans listed as -2.5 favorites.

This week's Dallas Cowboys vs. Houston Texans prediction highlights the top values for the game at Reliant Stadium on Sunday, October 4 at 1:00pm.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles

After 10,000 simulations of Rams vs. Eagles this Sunday, our model projects the Rams as the more likely winners with a probability of 61%. Their opponents, the Eagles, have a 39% chance of getting the win at home.

Compare projections and odds for this matchup in our Los Angeles Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles prediction, set for Sunday at 1:00pm.

Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

DimersBOT is picking the Packers, who have a 66% chance of winning the game, while the Buccaneers have a 34% chance of an upset win.

Access the full data breakdown in our Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers prediction ahead of kickoff at Raymond James Stadium.

Tennessee Titans vs. Baltimore Ravens

The next game of Week 4 sees the Titans take on the Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium.

We predict the Ravens to win with a probability of 85%, while the Titans are projected to have a win chance of 15%.

As for the Vegas betting odds here, the Ravens are listed as -11.5 favorites, with the Titans' moneyline odds posted at +530.

Breakdown further probabilities and player projections in the Tennessee Titans vs. Baltimore Ravens prediction for Sunday, October 4 at 1:00pm.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals

The likely winner of this matchup is the Bengals, who have a projected win chance of 60%, according to DimersBOT. On the other side of this matchup, the Jaguars have a projected win probability of 40%.

Check out our Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals prediction to see where the rest of the numbers lean ahead of Sunday's game in Cincinnati.

Miami Dolphins vs. Minnesota Vikings

We have run our powerful NFL model over this week’s Dolphins-Vikings clash 10,000 times, with the Vikings coming out as the team to pick. Of those 10,000 simulations, the Vikings won 8,295 times, with the Dolphins winning on 1,705 occasions.

Get direct access to more game projections with our Miami Dolphins vs. Minnesota Vikings prediction before Sunday's clash at U.S. Bank Stadium

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Next up is the game between the Chiefs and Raiders, with our model projecting the road team as the more likely victor, with the Chiefs rated as having a 68% chance of getting the W. The Raiders, on the other hand, are projected to have a 32% chance of winning.

For those interested in betting on this matchup, the oddsmakers have the Chiefs' moneyline odds set at -220 for this road game, while the hosting Raiders are listed as +4.5 underdogs.

Examine further probabilities in the full Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders prediction, scheduled for Sunday at 4:25pm.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Seattle Seahawks

Our next straight up pick this week is for the Seahawks to get the win against the Chargers. After running 10,000 simulations of this matchup, the Seattle have a win probability of 74%, with the Chargers at 26%.

View the complete Los Angeles Chargers vs. Seattle Seahawks prediction for a deeper look at this Sunday's game in Seattle.

Denver Broncos vs. San Francisco 49ers

With a win probability of 63% on Sunday afternoon, our straight up pick for this game is the 49ers, while their opponent, the Broncos, have a projected win chance of 37%.

Check out the latest projections in this week's Denver Broncos vs. San Francisco 49ers prediction before kickoff on Sunday, October 4 at 4:25pm.

Detroit Lions vs. Carolina Panthers

The team to pick here is the Lions, who have a 62% chance of winning their matchup against the Panthers this Sunday night.

Looking at the betting odds for this Sunday Night Football clash, the Panthers are listed as +3.5 underdogs at home, with the Lions' moneyline odds available at -180.

Find all game probabilities and odds in the full Detroit Lions vs. Carolina Panthers prediction for Sunday's matchup at Bank of America Stadium.

Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints

Our pick to win the final game of Week 4 is the Saints, who have a win probability of 60%. Their opponents are projected to have a 40% chance of getting the W.

See where the projections identify value in our Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints prediction, set for Monday at 8:15pm at Caesars Superdome.

Full list of NFL Week 4 picks straight up

This week's most likely NFL winners, ordered by probability:

• Ravens (85.1)% vs. Titans
• Vikings (83.0)% vs. Dolphins
• Seahawks (74.5)% vs. Chargers
• Bills (70.7)% vs. Patriots
• Chiefs 67.7% @ Raiders
• Packers 65.5% @ Buccaneers
• Colts 63.0% @ Commanders
• 49ers (62.7)% vs. Broncos
• Lions 62.1% @ Panthers
• Rams 61.3% @ Eagles
• Bears (60.6)% vs. Jets
• Steelers 60.1% @ Browns
• Saints (59.8)% vs. Falcons
• Bengals (59.7)% vs. Jaguars
• Texans (56.9)% vs. Cowboys
• Cardinals 51.4% @ Giants

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NFL straight up picks and predictions for Week 4

The NFL Week 4 predictions straight up in this article are accurate at the time of publication but may change.

Dimers.com is the best site for NFL predictions, with our straight up picks trusted by football fans across the country.

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Please note that all NFL odds and probabilities mentioned on this page are subject to change.