NFL Week 4 betting guide: Model backed picks, top player props and sharp Pick 'Ems

Week 4 arrives with no shortage of NFL betting action, major storylines and roster shakeups, which means we're back with another look at the most notable angles from the weekly slate.

Between prediction markets opening a new way of sports trading and sportsbooks ramping up the promos, NFL betting is at an all-time high this season and we are here to make sure you don't miss a beat as we head into Week 4.

That's where Dimers Pro comes in, fresh off another productive week across the Dimers Pro suite of NFL prediction tools.

Classic Chargers.

Peaked at a 94% chance to cover +7.5.

Lose by 8 to fall to 0-3.

The Dimers prediction model continues its hot run, picking up on the mispriced market line on the Bills ✅ pic.twitter.com/gycDCNa17d

— Dimers (@dimerscom) September 27, 2026

All season long, whether you're betting game lines with our best NFL bets, hunting a touchdown edge in our NFL player props, digging into our NFL player projections hub, or tracking Super Bowl futures, the Dimers model does the heavy lifting so you can bet based on data, not guesswork.

Find the narrative, check the data and let the numbers inside our NFL predictions do the rest while you sit back and take in every game this season.

Below, we break down the week's biggest storylines, our model's top spread and moneyline picks, and the players, markets and scenarios most worth your attention.

Three storylines to watch in Week 4

1. Sunday morning football from London

Set your alarms!

We've had two international games already this season, but they haven't messed with the broadcast schedule as Rams-Niners from Australia was our TNF game, and Cowboys-Ravens this past weekend was on in the Sunday afternoon window.

Colts vs. Commanders will be the first overseas game with a Sunday morning kickoff, getting udnerway at 9:30 AM ET from Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London.

Both teams are coming off Week 3 wins and big improvements, with Washington unlocking the ceiling of their offense and the Colts defense finally showing up after giving up over 70 points through two games.

Early predictions for the Dimers model give a slight lean to the over 46.5 at 51.2%, and a 63.0% win probability for Indianapolis. Both RBs, Jonathan Taylor (66,1%) and Jacory Croskey-Merritt (55.2%), have strong TD probabilities and the top WRs for both teams, Josh Downs and Terry McLaurin, project to clear 60 receiving yards.

2. First place up for grabs in AFC West

Could the Raiders really go 4-0?

Las Vegas has rolled to three wins early this season behind QB Kirk Cousins, and head coach Klint Kubiak.

At +800, they're tied atop the AFC West standings with the Chiefs who are -125. Both teams face off in Week 4.

In the Patrick Mahomes era (since 2018), the Raiders have 3 wins against the Chiefs. The Raiders are 4.5-point underdogs this week, with a 51.6% chance the Chiefs cover on the way to a win.

But, the Dimers model predicts the Raiders to put up a fight; both TE Brock Bowers and RB Ashton Jeanty are over a 43% chance for a touchdown, the second and third-most likely players to score in the game.

The key for Vegas will be containing Chiefs RB Kenneth Walker, who's projected for 87 rushing yards (third-most of the week) and a 53.6% TD probability, the latter of which does rank outside our top 10 RBs for the week.

3. Next man up: RB edition

Week 2 was the QBs, but Week 3 saw multiple starting RBs go down with injury.

Breece Hall (Jets), De'Von Achane (Dolphins) and Travis Etienne Jr. (Saints) all left their games and are et to miss varying degrees of time.

Achane is out for the season with a torn ACL, while Etienne (hamstring) and Hall (quad) are more week-to-week.

In Miami, Ollie Gordon and Jaylen Wright are behind Achane, but Wright is day-to-day with his own foot injury, and Gordon projects to lead the backfield with a 25.2% TD probability and 33.3 rushing yards.

Braelon Allen is the next man up behind Hall, and after scoring in Week 2, projects for 54.8 rushing yards and a substantial 47.4% TD probability vs. the Bears.

In New Orleans, the committee of veteran Alvin Kamara and career backup Kendre Miller will split duties, with Kamara projected to lead with 35.9 rushing yards, 15.1 receiving yards and a 32.7% TD probability.

Top picks against the spread in Week 4

These are the teams with the highest probability to cover the spread in their respective game this week.

They may not hold value, which is why you'll want to cross-reference with our NFL best bets - any spread picks with a betting edge will be identified there.

However, if you're looking to build NFL parlays with spreads, or make your choices in an NFL Pick 'ems league, these five teams are a good place to start.

At the early lines, our model isn't discounting the teams starting backups quite as much as the books, but keep an eye on these throughout the week for any line movement and updated predictions.

• 49ers -2.5 vs. Broncos (59%)
• Jets +3.5 @ Bears (55%)
• Rams -2.5 @ Eagles (55%)
• Cowboys +2.5 @ Texans (54%)
• Packers -3.5 @ Buccaneers (53%)

Top 5 season to date: 7-8

After a couple of down weeks for the Top 5, the big dogs showed out in Week 3 with a 4-1 result, taking our Top 5 to a 7-8 outing on the year so far.

For the best value regardless of probability, see every NFL spread bet with a Dimers edge here.

Who will win in NFL Week 4?

Here you'll find the five most likely outright winners this week. No spreads, no covering, and little betting value, just the five highest probabilities identified in our NFL predictions.

These are good teams to look at for weekly Survivor picks throughout the season, provided you haven't used one of them previously.

• Ravens 85% vs. Titans
• Vikings 83% vs. Dolphins
• Seahawks 75% vs. Chargers
• Bills 71% vs. Patriots
• Chiefs 68% vs. Raiders

Editor's Survivor pick: The "fade the Dolphins" strategy was the way to go in Week 3 and in Week 4, they're once again at the mercy of an over 80% favorite in the Vikings.

Season to date: WK1 Jaguars ✅ WK2 Buccaneers ❌ WK3 Chiefs ✅

Dimers' Sweet Spots to look for in Week 4

The "Sweet Spot" is a Dimers Pro feature that identifies the specific betting markets and edge ranges where our model is returning a positive profit over the course of the season.

These signals are the first to look for when researching a weekly NFL slate, as it shows where our model has proven to be most accurate .

Due to the launch of our brand-new NFL model, only props have Sweet Spots that have carried over from last season. Once we have enough bets in the bank, you'll find game lines here as well.

Two takeaways heading into Week 4: our top market of Rushing Yards has ticked up another 2.2% since Week 3, and 2+ touchdowns have made their way into positive ROI over 100 bets dating back to last season.

This week, there are over 20 players with an edge to score twice.

Players to watch in Week 4

These are players who need to be on your radar, whether in fantasy leagues or for player prop betting.

Last week, we looked at Christian Watson (scored for the third straight game), CeeDee Lamb (7 catches, 112 yards) and Derrick Henry (two touchdowns).

1. Derrick Henry (Ravens)

Yeah, we're looking at Derrick Henry again.

Why, you ask?

He's playing his former franchise, the Titans for the first time.

Tennessee is as bad as ever and have the 24th-ranked rushing defense this season, allowing 126.3 yards per game and 3 rushing touchdowns.

King Henry has six rushing touchdowns this season and enters this game with the highest touchdown probability of a player yet this season at 71.1% and his 12.9% chance for 3 or more touchdowns is a full 2% higher than any other player.

2. Tetairoa McMillan (Panthers)

Panthers WR Tetairoa "Tet" McMillan has yet to find the end zone this season, and is coming off his first disappointing game of the year, catching just 2 of 5 targets for 17 yards.

After a 1,000-yard, 7-TD rookie season, expectations have been high for the second-year wideout, but he hasn't scored.

In Week 4 vs. the Lions, Tet projects for the 9th-most receiving yards of the week at 70.1 and a 28.2% TD probability.

No team in the NFL has given up more passing yards than the Detroit Lions at 979, 104 more than the next team, and their 9 passing TDs are the second-most allowed. 

3. David Montgomery (Texans)

After a 3-TD Week 1 performance, David Montgomery looked like a league-winner in fantasy and a top betting target.

He has 42 rushing yards and no scores since then.

Fortunately, he has the cure for all production ailments on tap in Week 4, a matchup with the Cowboys defense.

Dimers' top-projected running backs in Week 4.

Already bottom-tier and now dealing with injuries, the Cowboys have given up the second-most rushing yards this season at 539 (over 100 more than Denver at third-most) and 3 rushing touchdowns.

Montgomery's rushing projection is solid but modest, though 69.1 yards would be the highest for him this season, and the fourth-highest TD probability of the week at 63.7%, with a substantial 26.9% probability to score twice, higher than OPOY favorites Bojan Robinson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Bet on NFL in 2026 with Dimers Pro

Every single player, team and betting insight in this article comes straight from Dimers Pro, your go-to resource for the NFL season.

You can find picks, props and predictions for every single NFL game this season via Dimers' NFL predictions.

Dimers Pro subscribers can also access recommended bets, edge ratings, Signals, and the best available prices throughout the season with a Dimers Pro football season pass, giving complete access to both NFL and college football, as well as all in-season sports during that time.