Sharks vs. Stars prediction favors Dallas to win Monday's NHL matchup [10/5/2026]

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Monday's NHL game between the Sharks and Stars, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Stars a 63.2% chance of beating the Sharks. According to our model, the Sharks (+1.5) have a 59.8% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6.5 goals has a 54.0% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Puck Line: Sharks +1.5 (-148) / Stars -1.5 (+135)
• Moneyline: Sharks +172, Stars -190
• Total: Over/Under 6.5 (+100/-115)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Puck line: Sharks +1.5 @ -148 via FanDuel
• Moneyline: Sharks @ +172 via FanDuel
• Total: Under 6.5 @ -115 via FanDuel

According to our best NHL bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Sharks vs. Stars player props

Who will score a goal in Sharks vs. Stars?

According to our model, Wyatt Johnston is most likely to score an anytime goal in Sharks vs. Stars.

Our projections give Johnston a 43.5% chance of scoring a goal at American Airlines Center, while the star is a 9.4% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

San Jose Sharks

• Macklin Celebrini: 35.3% probability
• Will Smith: 27.7% probability
• Igor Chernyshov: 21.8% probability
• Collin Graf: 19.0% probability
• Mason Marchment: 18.8% probability

Dallas Stars

• Wyatt Johnston: 43.5% probability
• Jason Robertson: 39.8% probability
• Mikko Rantanen: 36.5% probability
• Roope Hintz: 25.3% probability
• Tyler Seguin: 23.3% probability

First goal scorer predictions

San Jose Sharks

• Macklin Celebrini: 6.6% probability
• Will Smith: 5.1% probability
• Igor Chernyshov: 3.9% probability
• Mason Marchment: 3.8% probability
• Kiefer Sherwood: 3.6% probability

Dallas Stars

• Wyatt Johnston: 9.4% probability
• Jason Robertson: 7.3% probability
• Mikko Rantanen: 6.9% probability
• Roope Hintz: 4.6% probability
• Tyler Seguin: 4.1% probability

Game info & puck drop details

Monday's action between the Stars and Sharks at American Airlines Center is scheduled to begin at 8:00 PM ET.

• Who: San Jose Sharks vs. Dallas Stars
• Date: Monday, October 5, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
• Venue: American Airlines Center

Conclusion

We predict the Stars, with a 63.2% win probability, will likely beat the Sharks in Monday's NHL matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NHL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.