Jets vs. Penguins prediction: Why Pittsburgh is favored to win Monday's NHL matchup [10/5/2026]

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Monday's NHL game between the Jets and Penguins, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Penguins a 59.7% chance of beating the Jets. According to our model, the Jets (+1.5) have a 62.5% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal over/under has a 53.6% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Puck Line: Jets +1.5 (-164) / Penguins -1.5 (+145)
• Moneyline: Jets +155, Penguins -169
• Total: Over/Under 6.5 (-105/-112)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Puck line: Jets +1.5 @ -164 via ESPN BET
• Moneyline: Jets @ +155 via BetRivers
• Total: Under 6.5 @ -112 via BetRivers

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Jets to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Jets vs. Penguins player props

Who will score a goal in Jets vs. Penguins?

According to our model, Kyle Connor is most likely to score an anytime goal in Jets vs. Penguins.

Our projections give Connor a 40.4% chance of scoring a goal at PPG Paints Arena, while the star is an 8.0% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Winnipeg Jets

• Kyle Connor: 40.4% probability
• Mark Scheifele: 33.6% probability
• Gabriel Vilardi: 29.1% probability
• Cole Perfetti: 21.6% probability
• Morgan Barron: 18.4% probability

Pittsburgh Penguins

• Sidney Crosby: 37.0% probability
• Rickard Rakell: 33.9% probability
• Egor Chinakhov: 31.0% probability
• Evgeni Malkin: 30.0% probability
• Thomas Novak: 23.5% probability

First goal scorer predictions

Winnipeg Jets

• Kyle Connor: 8.0% probability
• Mark Scheifele: 6.1% probability
• Gabriel Vilardi: 5.4% probability
• Cole Perfetti: 3.7% probability
• Morgan Barron: 3.1% probability

Pittsburgh Penguins

• Sidney Crosby: 7.1% probability
• Rickard Rakell: 6.8% probability
• Egor Chinakhov: 5.9% probability
• Evgeni Malkin: 5.3% probability
• Nicholas Robertson: 4.2% probability

Game info & puck drop details

Monday's action between the Penguins and Jets at PPG Paints Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:30 PM ET.

• Who: Winnipeg Jets vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
• Date: Monday, October 5, 2026
• Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
• Venue: PPG Paints Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Penguins, with a 59.7% win probability, will likely beat the Jets in Monday's NHL matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NHL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.