Best Tight End matchups to bet on during National Tight Ends Day

It's Tight Ends Day in Week 7, and we're putting that position under the microscope, stacking up the Dimers NFL player projections data against the teams that have been most susceptible to production by opposing tight ends so far this season.

What makes favorable tight end matchups so appealing when betting on NFL player props, is that unlike the WR room or even the backfields for most teams, the majority of NFL teams typically utilize one primary tight end who can capitalize on the matchup, rather than a trio of WRs who could each pop off for a big day against a team with a soft secondary.

To find the best spots, we lined up the defenses that have given up the most production to the position against the Dimers model's Week 7 tight end projections.

Here are five tight ends with the friendliest matchups and what the Dimers NFL predictions data says about each.

To see how we project every TE in Week 7, check out our Week 7 tight end rankings.

Tucker Kraft (Packers)

Week 7 matchup: Packers at Lions

No defense has been easier on tight ends than Detroit.

In five games, the Lions have allowed 51 catches, 545 yards and nine touchdowns to the position. The Dimers model projects Kraft for 4.4 catches, 50.4 yards and 11.8 PPR points, sixth among tight ends this week. It gives him a 30.3% chance to score.

Kraft has been steady rather than displaying the explosiveness he has in past seasons, with 25 catches for 249 yards and one touchdown through six games.

He drew a season-high eight targets in last week's win over Dallas, and if he can build on some momentum with 5+ catches in his past three games, this is the matchup where his volume could finally turn into a bigger line.

Tyler Higbee (Rams)

Week 7 matchup: Rams at Raiders

Las Vegas has given up six touchdowns to tight ends and ranks fourth in fantasy points allowed to the position (11.1 per game).

While Los Angeles deploys a TE committee, Higbee has been the Rams' most reliable tight end, with 24 catches for 246 yards and a touchdown through six games. 

His 29 targets are the fourth-most on a pass-heavy offense, and are nearly as much as the Rams' other three TEs combined.

He had his worst game since Week 2 in the Rams' loss to the Cardinals on Sunday, with four catches for 22 yards and a lost fumble, so there is a chance he cedes some work to Colby Parkinson.

The Dimers model projects Higbee for 3.2 catches, 36.8 yards, and a 28.3% chance to score. That's a fair bit ahead of Parkinson as far as yards, but they have a similar TD probability at 23.9% for Parkinson.

Pat Freiermuth (Steelers)

Week 7 matchup: Steelers vs. Saints (in Paris)

New Orleans has been a high-volume matchup for tight ends.

Among the defenses that have been most generous to the position, only Detroit has allowed more targets (58) or yards (455), but the Saints have given up just three touchdowns to the position.

Freiermuth is effectively the complete opposite; he has 21 catches for only 180 yards through six games, but four touchdowns, three of which came in his past three games.

He played through a calf injury in last week's overtime win over Tampa Bay, catching two passes for 11 yards while fellow TE Darnell Washington found the end zone, but he doesn't carry an injury designation headed into this game.

Pittsburgh's injuries at wide receiver give him a slightly wider path to volume and we project Freiermuth for 3.2 catches, 35.2 yards and 8.8 PPR points

 His 28.7% chance to score is the highest of any Steelers tight end, ahead of Darnell Washington's 20.2%, and comes with a betting edge against his best odds of +295.

George Kittle (49ers)

Week 7 matchup: 49ers at Falcons

The man himself, George Kittle is arguably the best combination of player and matchup on the board.

The Dimers model projects him for 5.3 catches, 66.3 yards and 15.7 PPR points for you fantasy players out there, third among tight ends, behind only Brock Bowers and Trey McBride.

His 42.3% chance to score is second only to Bowers' 42.8% by a mere half-percent. Atlanta ranks around the middle of the pack with 38 catches, 337 yards and four touchdowns given up to tight ends this year.

Kittle has 26 catches for 337 yards and five touchdowns this season, scoring in four games and looking sharp in his return from a torn Achilles.

He's caught at least four passes in five straight games, including five for 69 yards and a score in Monday's win over Washington, and if Mike Evans is out for this game, he is the unquestionable top target for Brock Purdy.

Evan Engram (Broncos)

Week 7 matchup: Broncos at Cardinals

Arizona has given up 39 catches, 416 yards and five touchdowns to the position.

Somewhat unfortunately, the matchup is with one of the weaker passing offenses in the NFL, the Broncos.

Maybe this is a situation in which the matchup is just what the doctor ordered, or it could be one that the Broncos simply aren't equipped to take advantage of.

That makes Evan Engram the riskiest name on this list. He has just 12 catches for 134 yards and a touchdown through six games, and he played 31 of 60 snaps in last week's overtime win over Seattle.

The case for him rests on the matchup and on his role mimicking his production in Week 1 and Week 4. The Dimers model's conservative projection reflects the Broncos' offensive struggles even in a favorable spot with 2.6 catches, 26.7 yards and an 18.6% chance to score, the lowest of the five tight ends here.

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