Bears vs. Packers prediction favors Chicago to win in NFL Week 5 [2026]

NFL Week 5 action continues on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET as the Chicago Bears take on the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field.

Dimers' advanced NFL model gives the Bears a slight edge with a 53.9% win probability over the Packers.

This article offers a complete Bears vs. Packers prediction, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Bears vs. Packers prediction and odds

Since our Bears-Packers predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Bears and Packers, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Bears a 53.9% chance of beating the Packers in Week 5 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Bears winning 23-22.

Key factors favoring the Bears:

• Bears offense
• Packers defense
• Bears recent performance

According to our model, the Packers (+1.5) have a 50.9% chance of covering the spread, while the 46.5-point over/under has a 51.3% chance of staying under.

The main contributing factors to the under being more likely are:

• Packers recent performance
• Playing conditions

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 5 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Bears -1.5 (+104) / Packers +1.5 (-105)
• Moneyline: Bears -108, Packers +106
• Total: Over/Under 46.5 (-104/+102)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Bears -1.5 @ 49¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Bears @ 52¢ via Novig
• Total: Under 46.5 @ 50¢ via Novig

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Bears to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Bears vs. Packers TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Bears vs. Packers?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 5, D'Andre Swift is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Bears vs. Packers.

Our projections give Swift a 60.0% chance of getting in for six at Lambeau Field, while the running back is a 16.0% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Chicago Bears

• D'Andre Swift (RB): 60.0% probability
• Colston Loveland (TE): 27.2%
• Luther Burden (WR): 25.2%
• Rome Odunze (WR): 24.3%
• Roschon Johnson (RB): 22.2%

Green Bay Packers

• Christian Watson (WR): 39.0% prob.
• MarShawn Lloyd (RB): 37.8%
• Kaleb Johnson (RB): 28.5%
• Matthew Golden (WR): 27.5%
• Tucker Kraft (TE): 26.9%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Chicago Bears

• D'Andre Swift (RB): 16.0% prob.
• Colston Loveland (TE): 5.5%
• Luther Burden (WR): 5.1%
• Rome Odunze (WR): 4.9%
• Roschon Johnson (RB): 4.4%

Green Bay Packers

• Christian Watson (WR): 9.2% prob.
• MarShawn Lloyd (RB): 8.8%
• Kaleb Johnson (RB): 6.2%
• Matthew Golden (WR): 6.0%
• Tucker Kraft (TE): 5.8%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Bears and Packers. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 5 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Bears' Tyson Bagent is projected for 215 passing yards, while the Packers' Jordan Love is expected to throw for 249 yards.

Bears rushing

• D'Andre Swift: 89 yds
• Roschon Johnson: 26 yds
• Tyson Bagent: 15 yds

Packers rushing

• Kaleb Johnson: 35 yds
• MarShawn Lloyd: 31 yds
• Pierre Strong: 19 yds

Bears receiving

• Luther Burden: 52 yds
• Rome Odunze: 45 yds
• Colston Loveland: 43 yds
• Kalif Raymond: 34 yds
• D'Andre Swift: 20 yds

Packers receiving

• Christian Watson: 66 yds
• Matthew Golden: 63 yds
• Tucker Kraft: 49 yds
• Skyy Moore: 19 yds
• MarShawn Lloyd: 17 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 5 matchup between the Packers and Bears at Lambeau Field is scheduled to start at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers
• Date: Sunday, October 11, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Lambeau Field

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Conclusion

We predict the Bears, with a 53.9% win probability, will likely beat the Packers in Week 5 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.