Raiders vs. Patriots prediction favors New England to win in NFL Week 5 [2026]

The New England Patriots will face the Las Vegas Raiders in NFL Week 5 action at Gillette Stadium on Sunday, commencing at 1:00 PM ET.

Dimers' advanced NFL model projects the Patriots as the most likely winner in this Raiders vs. Patriots prediction.

This article offers further insights into Sunday's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Raiders vs. Patriots prediction and odds

Since our Raiders-Patriots predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Raiders and Patriots, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Patriots a 66.0% chance of defeating the Raiders in Week 5 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Patriots winning 25-20.

Key factors favoring the Patriots:

• Raiders offense
• Patriots team rating
• Patriots offense

According to our model, the Patriots (-3.5) have a 52.6% chance of covering the spread, while the 45.5-point over/under has a 51.3% chance of going over.

The main contributing factors to the over being more likely are:

• Playing conditions
• Raiders recent performance

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 5 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Raiders +3.5 (-106) / Patriots -3.5 (+104)
• Moneyline: Raiders +163, Patriots -167
• Total: Over/Under 45.5 (+104/-102)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Patriots -3.5 @ 49¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Patriots @ 63¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 45.5 @ 49¢ via Polymarket

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Patriots -3.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Raiders vs. Patriots TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Raiders vs. Patriots?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 5, Rhamondre Stevenson is most likely to score an anytime TD in Raiders vs. Patriots.

Our projections give Stevenson a 41.9% chance of scoring a TD at Gillette Stadium, while the running back is a 9.7% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Las Vegas Raiders

• Ashton Jeanty (RB): 40.1% probability
• Brock Bowers (TE): 38.3%
• Mike Washington (RB): 28.3%
• Cody White (WR): 23.0%
• Tre Tucker (WR): 21.6%

New England Patriots

• Rhamondre Stevenson (RB): 41.9% prob.
• TreVeyon Henderson (RB): 38.6%
• Romeo Doubs (WR): 30.6%
• Hunter Henry (TE): 28.2%
• Drake Maye (QB): 20.1%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Las Vegas Raiders

• Ashton Jeanty (RB): 9.7% prob.
• Brock Bowers (TE): 9.2%
• Mike Washington (RB): 6.3%
• Cody White (WR): 5.0%
• Tre Tucker (WR): 4.6%

New England Patriots

• Rhamondre Stevenson (RB): 9.7% prob.
• TreVeyon Henderson (RB): 8.8%
• Romeo Doubs (WR): 6.6%
• Hunter Henry (TE): 6.0%
• Drake Maye (QB): 4.0%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Raiders and Patriots. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 5 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Raiders' Kirk Cousins is projected for 236 passing yards. The Patriots' Drake Maye is expected to throw for 230 yards.

Raiders rushing

• Ashton Jeanty: 48 yds
• Mike Washington: 34 yds
• Kirk Cousins: 4 yds

Patriots rushing

• TreVeyon Henderson: 48 yds
• Rhamondre Stevenson: 45 yds
• Drake Maye: 32 yds

Raiders receiving

• Brock Bowers: 70 yds
• Tre Tucker: 46 yds
• Michael Mayer: 33 yds
• Cody White: 28 yds
• Ashton Jeanty: 25 yds

Patriots receiving

• Romeo Doubs: 55 yds
• Hunter Henry: 40 yds
• DeMario Douglas: 33 yds
• Efton Chism: 31 yds
• Rhamondre Stevenson: 21 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 5 matchup between the Patriots and Raiders at Gillette Stadium is scheduled to start at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: Las Vegas Raiders vs. New England Patriots
• Date: Sunday, October 11, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Gillette Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Patriots, with a 66.0% win probability, will likely beat the Raiders in Week 5 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.