Jets vs. Patriots prediction favors New England to win in NFL Week 6 [2026]

The New England Patriots will square off with the New York Jets in NFL Week 6 action at Gillette Stadium on Sunday, starting at 1:00 PM ET.

Dimers' advanced NFL model projects the Patriots as the most likely winner in this Jets vs. Patriots prediction.

This article offers a closer look at this week's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Jets vs. Patriots prediction and odds

Since our Jets-Patriots predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's NFL game between the Jets and Patriots, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Patriots a 73.7% chance of beating the Jets in Week 6 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Patriots winning 25-17.

Key factors favoring the Patriots:

• Patriots team rating
• Jets offense
• Patriots offense

According to our model, the Patriots (-6.5) have a 56.4% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 42.5 points has a 51.9% chance of going over.

Key factors making the over more likely are::

• Playing conditions
• Patriots recent performance

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 6 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Jets +6.5 (+113) / Patriots -6.5 (-115)
• Moneyline: Jets +308, Patriots -317
• Total: Over/Under 42.5 (+100/+100)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Patriots -6.5 @ 53¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Jets @ 25¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 42.5 @ 50¢ via Polymarket

According to our best NFL bets, the top play to make on this game is Patriots -6.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Jets vs. Patriots TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Jets vs. Patriots?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, Rhamondre Stevenson is most likely to score an anytime TD in Jets vs. Patriots.

Our projections give Stevenson a 47.9% chance of scoring a TD at Gillette Stadium, while the running back is a 12.0% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

New York Jets

• Braelon Allen (RB): 40.6% probability
• Garrett Wilson (WR): 30.9%
• Kenyon Sadiq (TE): 14.6%
• Isaiah Davis (RB): 13.7%
• Omar Cooper (WR): 11.6%

New England Patriots

• Rhamondre Stevenson (RB): 47.9% prob.
• A.J. Brown (WR): 36.1%
• Hunter Henry (TE): 25.9%
• Romeo Doubs (WR): 24.9%
• TreVeyon Henderson (RB): 24.6%

First touchdown scorer predictions

New York Jets

• Braelon Allen (RB): 11.3% prob.
• Garrett Wilson (WR): 8.1%
• Kenyon Sadiq (TE): 3.4%
• Isaiah Davis (RB): 3.2%
• Omar Cooper (WR): 2.7%

New England Patriots

• Rhamondre Stevenson (RB): 12.0% prob.
• A.J. Brown (WR): 8.2%
• Hunter Henry (TE): 5.5%
• Romeo Doubs (WR): 5.3%
• TreVeyon Henderson (RB): 5.2%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Jets and Patriots. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 6 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Jets' Geno Smith is projected for 212 passing yards, while the Patriots' Drake Maye is expected to throw for 235 yards.

Jets rushing

• Braelon Allen: 68 yds
• Isaiah Davis: 14 yds
• Geno Smith: 11 yds

Patriots rushing

• Rhamondre Stevenson: 62 yds
• TreVeyon Henderson: 31 yds
• Drake Maye: 28 yds

Jets receiving

• Garrett Wilson: 75 yds
• Kenyon Sadiq: 23 yds
• Tim Patrick: 22 yds
• Omar Cooper: 20 yds
• Mason Taylor: 19 yds

Patriots receiving

• A.J. Brown: 56 yds
• Romeo Doubs: 38 yds
• Hunter Henry: 31 yds
• DeMario Douglas: 27 yds
• Rhamondre Stevenson: 24 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 6 game between the Patriots and Jets at Gillette Stadium is scheduled to start at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: New York Jets vs. New England Patriots
• Date: Sunday, October 18, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Gillette Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Patriots, with a 73.7% win probability, will likely beat the Jets in Week 6 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.