Aces vs. Liberty prediction: New York favored to win Sunday's WNBA game [8/9/2026]
Get Las Vegas Aces vs New York Liberty predictions for WNBA Sunday.
The New York Liberty and Las Vegas Aces are scheduled to meet in the WNBA at Barclays Center on Sunday, with tipoff at 12:30 PM ET.
Dimers' proven WNBA model projects the Liberty as the most likely winner in this Aces vs. Liberty prediction.
The Liberty, who have stars such as Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones, will face off against the Aces, featuring NaLyssa Smith, Jewell Loyd and Dana Evans.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Aces vs. Liberty prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Liberty an 87.7% chance of defeating the Aces.
According to our model, the Liberty (-11.5) have a 53.1% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 175.5 points has a 53.3% chance of going over,.
Aces vs. Liberty odds
We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Spread: Liberty -11.5 @ -110 via BetRivers
- Moneyline: Liberty @ -550 via BetMGM
- Total: Over 175.5 @ -108 via DraftKings
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Aces vs. Liberty picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Spread: Liberty -11.5 @ -110 via DraftKings
- Moneyline: Liberty @ -550 via BetMGM
- Total: Over 175.5 @ -108 via DraftKings According to our best WNBA bets, the top play to make on this game is Liberty to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Aces vs. Liberty player props
WNBA prop bets are an exciting way to wager on the Las Vegas vs. New York matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Barclays Center.
NaLyssa Smith is expected to lead the Aces with 14 points, 7 rebounds and 2 assists, while Breanna Stewart is projected to have 21 points, 8 rebounds and 3 assists for the Liberty.
For early game action, the data identifies NaLyssa Smith as the most probable player to secure the first basket.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Aces prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Aces are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NaLyssa Smith | 14 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 31 |
| Jewell Loyd | 11 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 23 |
| Dana Evans | 10 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 20 |
| S. Talbot | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 21 |
| Brianna Turner | 7 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 22 |
Liberty prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Liberty:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breanna Stewart | 21 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 42 |
| Sabrina Ionescu | 16 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 35 |
| Jonquel Jones | 14 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 38 |
| Pauline Astier | 10 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 23 |
| Han Xu | 8 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 18 |
Aces vs. Liberty game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's matchup between the Liberty and Aces at Barclays Center is scheduled to commence at 12:30 PM ET.
- Who: Las Vegas Aces vs. New York Liberty
- Date: Sunday, August 9, 2026
- Time: 12:30 PM ET/9:30AM PT
- Venue: Barclays Center
Conclusion
We predict the Liberty, with an 87.7% win probability, will likely beat the Aces in Sunday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
