Sparks vs. Lynx prediction: Why Minnesota is favored to win Thursday's WNBA matchup [8/6/2026]

The Minnesota Lynx will take on the Los Angeles Sparks in WNBA action at Target Center on Thursday, starting at 9:00 PM ET.

Dimers' proven WNBA model projects the Lynx as the most likely winner in this Sparks vs. Lynx prediction.

The Lynx, who have stars such as Napheesa Collier, Olivia Miles and Kayla McBride, will face off against the Sparks, whose lineup includes Dearica Hamby, Nneka Ogwumike and Rae Burrell.

This article offers further insights into Thursday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Sparks vs. Lynx prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Thursday's WNBA matchup between the Sparks and Lynx, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Lynx an 89.8% chance of defeating the Sparks.

According to our model, the Sparks (+16.5) have a 61.0% chance of covering the spread, while the 187.5-point over/under has a 57.8% chance of staying under,.

Sparks vs. Lynx odds

We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Sparks	Lynx
Spread	+16.5 (+100)	-16.5 (-104)
Moneyline	+1011	-1076
Total	o187.5 (+104)	u187.5 (-104)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Sparks vs. Lynx picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Sparks +16.5	+100
Moneyline	Sparks	+1011
Total	Under 187.5	-104

According to our best WNBA bets, the top play to make on this game is Sparks +16.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Sparks vs. Lynx player props

WNBA prop bets are a popular way to wager on Thursday's Sparks vs. Lynx matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Target Center.

Dearica Hamby is expected to lead the Sparks with 15 points, 8 rebounds and 3 assists, while Napheesa Collier is projected to have 21 points, 7 rebounds and 3 assists for the Lynx.

Shifting focus to the first basket market, our projections highlight Nneka Ogwumike as the most likely player to open the scoring.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Sparks prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Sparks are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Dearica Hamby	15	8	3	0	35
Nneka Ogwumike	15	8	4	1	35
Rae Burrell	14	3	3	2	28
Ariel Atkins	10	4	3	2	26
Erica Wheeler	9	3	7	2	26

Lynx prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Lynx:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
N. Collier	21	7	3	2	41
Olivia Miles	18	5	6	1	37
Kayla McBride	17	3	2	3	30
C. Williams	15	5	5	1	33
Natasha Howard	13	7	3	0	31

Sparks vs. Lynx game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's matchup between the Lynx and Sparks at Target Center is scheduled to commence at 9:00 PM ET.

• Who: Los Angeles Sparks vs. Minnesota Lynx
• Date: Thursday, August 6, 2026
• Time: 9:00 PM ET/6:00PM PT
• Venue: Target Center

Conclusion

We predict the Lynx, with an 89.8% win probability, will likely beat the Sparks in Thursday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.