Sparks vs. Lynx prediction: Why Minnesota is favored to win Thursday's WNBA matchup [8/6/2026]
Get Los Angeles Sparks vs Minnesota Lynx predictions for WNBA Thursday.
The Minnesota Lynx will square off with the Los Angeles Sparks in WNBA action at Target Center on Thursday, commencing at 9:00 PM ET.
Dimers' advanced WNBA model projects the Lynx as the most likely winner in this Sparks vs. Lynx prediction.
The Lynx, with star players like Napheesa Collier, Olivia Miles and Kayla McBride, are set to take on the Sparks, featuring Dearica Hamby, Nneka Ogwumike and Rae Burrell.
This article offers further insights into Thursday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Sparks vs. Lynx prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our famous predictive model gives the Lynx an 85.3% chance of defeating the Sparks.
According to our model, the Sparks (+15.5) have a 66.7% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 188.5 points has a 58.4% chance of staying under,.
Sparks vs. Lynx odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Sparks | Lynx |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +15.5 (+113) | -15.5 (-117) |
| Moneyline | +1011 | -1011 |
| Total | o188.5 (+108) | u188.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Sparks vs. Lynx picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sparks +15.5 | +113 |
| Moneyline | Sparks | +1011 |
| Total | Under 188.5 | -110 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Sparks +15.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Sparks vs. Lynx player props
WNBA prop bets are a common way to wager on the Sparks vs. Lynx game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Target Center.
Dearica Hamby is expected to lead the Sparks with 16 points, 8 rebounds and 3 assists, while Napheesa Collier is projected to have 20 points, 7 rebounds and 3 assists for the Lynx.
Shifting focus to the first basket market, our projections highlight Nneka Ogwumike as the most likely player to open the scoring.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Sparks prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Sparks are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dearica Hamby | 16 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 37 |
| Nneka Ogwumike | 15 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 36 |
| Rae Burrell | 14 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 28 |
| Erica Wheeler | 10 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 29 |
| Cameron Brink | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 26 |
Lynx prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Lynx:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Collier | 20 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 41 |
| Olivia Miles | 18 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 37 |
| Kayla McBride | 16 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 30 |
| C. Williams | 14 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 32 |
| Natasha Howard | 13 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 31 |
Sparks vs. Lynx game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's matchup between the Lynx and Sparks at Target Center is scheduled to start at 9:00 PM ET.
- Who: Los Angeles Sparks vs. Minnesota Lynx
- Date: Thursday, August 6, 2026
- Time: 9:00 PM ET/6:00PM PT
- Venue: Target Center
Conclusion
We predict the Lynx, with an 85.3% win probability, will likely beat the Sparks in Thursday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
